For starters, success is still not guaranteed. Either Netanyahu or Hamas could kill the deal. But assuming success …
Why the Deal Sill Might Fail
Before explaining why Trump got much further than Biden, let’s discuss what might still kill the deal.
The Wall Street Journal reports Netanyahu Strikes Cautious Tone on Gaza Cease-Fire as He Tries to Hold Government Together
As U.S. politicians and Qatari mediators hailed a Gaza cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck a different tone.
The prime minister’s office sent out a cautionary message, saying negotiations were continuing and a deal would be announced only once they were completed. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump took a victory lap: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November,” he said on his social-media platform, Truth Social.
The contrast reflects the political reality for Netanyahu, who has been scrambling to hold his coalition together. He has to convince his right-wing base that the arguments he made against ending the war for 15 months no longer apply.
Netanyahu had long promised to continue fighting in Gaza until Hamas is destroyed. “It’s very difficult for him to explain to many people in Israel, including people who are protesting against him, why Israel has to promise an end to the war when thousands of Hamas [fighters] are still there,” said Ehud Yaari, a fellow for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank. “That’s a big question that people all across the political spectrum are asking. You’re going to end the war and Hamas is there?”
On Tuesday, far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to quit the coalition if the deal goes through and urged far-right counterpart Bezalel Smotrich to do the same. A minister in Netanyahu’s Likud party, Amichai Chikli, said Thursday he would leave the government if Israel stopped the war, something that is supposed to take place in the second phase of the agreement.
The reaction to the deal shows the divides within Israeli society. For months, protesters have demanded that Netanyahu strike a deal that would end the war and free the nearly 100 hostages remaining in Gaza. But at the same time, his base and key elements of his coalition firmly resisted any end to the war if Hamas wasn’t destroyed.
“We see how he gives up on all values and gives up on the goals of the war,” said Yisrael Keller, a right-wing activist who opposes the deal. “This deal is very, very dangerous. It frees hundreds and thousands of terrorists, murderers, some who have blood on their hands. Every one of them has the potential to bring on the next massacre.”
A Deal at Last
Please consider A Deal at Last on Eurointelligence.
The deal will change the parameters of Israeli engagement in Gaza. They can only walk away from the deal with Trump’s blessing.
It is remarkable that Trump, with his belligerent rhetoric, could turn out to become the peacemaker in the Middle East.
There is still is a long road ahead towards real peace. To get the deal done ahead of his inauguration has been an astonishing success for Trump. Once he is in office, his US administration needs to build on this. The Abraham accords and the normalisation with Arab countries will be back on the table and with it the demands for a two-state solution.
The ceasefire deal was just the beginning. A walk in the park compared to what comes next.
Why Did Trump Succeed (or at Least Get Much Further)?
- Trump is transactional, while Biden is ideological. Trump’s support for other nations is always conditional, while it was unconditional for Biden.
- Trump has no problems to use all his power as US president to push through his way. Biden counted on diplomacy alone.
- Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is not your usual US diplomat. He is a real estate investor who knows how to conclude deals. And he directly reports to Trump.
The above points made by Eurointelligence.
The Irony of the Moment
The deal might still blow up, but there is a good chance it succeeds at least through phase one. But then Trump will be president.
The primary reason the deal might fail is Netanyahu. He will do whatever it takes to stay in power. And he has to deal with the possibility his coalition collapses, right now, over the deal.
The irony is that if the hard-liners kill the coalition and the government fails, the next government is unlikely to be as hardline as Netanyahu.
Multiple Bluff Possibilities
So is the threat of a government collapse a bluff or reality?
That is not the only possible bluff on the table.
Trump wants a deal. And he might easily threaten to make things difficult for Netanyahu, in many ways, if a deal doesn’t happen.
Base Case
My base case is phase one of the deal happens. Trump will then get to brag, and rightly so.
Then we will see about phase two and three.
Sixty days from now, the political landscape in Israel and Hamas may look much different.
Hamas-Israel Ceasefire Peace Deal, 47,000 Deaths Too Late, What’s Ahead?
Yesterday, I commented Hamas-Israel Ceasefire Peace Deal, 47,000 Deaths Too Late, What’s Ahead?
My post stirred up a hornets nest regarding allegedly exaggerated death numbers.
But Israel’s military has accepted in briefings that the overall Gaza casualty numbers are broadly reliable.
My point is not whether it’s 40,000 or 60,000 but whether or not too many are dead and why. I quoted Bob Dylan in a Musical Tribute.
Yes, and how many deaths will it take ’til he knows
That too many people have died?
Hamas did this … but Israel did that … the who started what and when bickering is endless.
Here’s the basic reality: There will not be peace as long as Hamas and Israel vow to eliminate the other, with both sides cheering.
We must find a way to stop rooting for revenge and cheering destruction. I believe it will take land for peace in a fair deal, and willingness to get along.
When? How?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind