Let’s discuss the latest national polls and a preposterous 8-point lead for Democrats in one Michigan poll.
The above image is courtesy of the Silver Bulletin with Pollster Bias also from the Silver Bulletin, when published.
Last update: 11:30 a.m., Saturday, October 19. Happy Saturday. Not the highest-quality set of polling entering our database. Kamala Harris got some good numbers from The Bluefinch Group in the Blue Wall states, but they’ve had a strong D-leaning house effect throughout the cycle. The race remains very close to 50/50.
Comment From Bullfinch
If you think a demographic is going to be more represented come election day, weight ’em up. If you think a demographic is going to sit this one out, weight them down.
NOTE ON WEIGHTING: As you’ll see in the Toplines, we share why we ask things a certain way, and also why we prefer not to weight data. If you do want to weight the data, we recommend weighting on the demographics, not on ballot questions.
You might want to Download Bullfinch Toplines to see their interesting comments,
I asked Silver for links on pollster bias in his tables, but I doubt he pays any attention to any requests or comments.
Democrats up 8 in the Bullfinch poll seems preposterous.
Silver subtracts bias, factors in weight, and applies that to the overall assessment. In short, Silver factors in outliers. In general, I would agree but at what point does one say this poll is so obviously biased I will throw it away?
For Silver there is not cutoff. Of course, Harris fans would have wanted to toss away the recent Quinnipiac poll that had Trump up 3.5 percentage points.
Regardless, as I scan the above Michigan table it is not at all clear who, if anyone is leading or by how much.
National Polls
Democrats will look at that poll showing Republicans in the lead and scoff that it’s Fox News.
Republicans tend to see New York Times/Siena polls as biased for Harris.
Net Pollster Bias
The fact is that pollsters for both Fox News and the NYT are among the best pollsters with the least ongoing bias.
As I look at the national polls, Harris is flirting 2.0+-. That is just below her win point.
Trump insults Detroit
The Associated Press reports Trump Insults Detroit While Campaigning in the City
“The whole country will be like — you want to know the truth? It’ll be like Detroit,” the Republican presidential nominee said. “Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president.”
Trump’s remarks came as he addressed the Detroit Economic Club in a speech appealing to the auto industry, a key segment of the population in battleground Michigan’s largest city.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has been a major surrogate for the Democratic presidential ticket, also criticized Trump, saying on X, “And you better believe Detroiters won’t forget this in November.”
This is just plain stupid. It’s also just plain Trump.
Time Magazine reports In Detroit, Donald Trump Gets the Closest He’s Ever Gotten To An Apology
Donald Trump does not apologize. Ever. It’s actually a point of great pride for him.
But his return to Michigan on Friday showed that, at least briefly, he understood he had stepped in it last week in a city that could dictate the fate of this state’s 15 electoral votes.
On stage Friday evening, with “Make Detroit Great Again” on the screen, Trump said the city’s problems were failures made on Democrats’ watch. “Your beautiful place, your beautiful city” was “decimated as if by a foreign army.” It was a heaping dose of victimhood with a promise of redemption
“I will put Detroit first. I will put Michigan first. I will put America first,” he said.
The crowd’s acceptance of Trump’s Detroit-on-the-rise spin was consistent with their collective amnesia or indifference to his logical inconsistencies throughout the evening. Breaths after promising to kill any electric-vehicle mandates, he praised Tesla chief Elon Musk. His contradictions on tariffs were as manifest as ever.
Before the boss spoke, Trump policy adviser Stephen Miller drew roars when he promised a plan to make Detroit the “economic center of the world,” as if the opposite hadn’t been suggested just days earlier. It was a signal that Trump’s feathering was not a deviation from the script but a change to it. In his remarks, Trump peppered rare notes of optimism even as his dark rhetoric on other topics showed no sign of softening.
Trump’s Polling Momentum Is Real
Yesterday, I commented Trump’s Polling Momentum Is Real With Under Three Weeks to Go
Just because Trump has momentum does not mean he keeps it. Expect anything.
Could Trump’s Detroit gaffe kill any momentum Trump has in Michigan? Yes, why not? Then again, it might not.
Regardless, this was a fumble and it cannot possibly do Trump any good.
Head-Scratching Dinner Skit
If you are looking for unforced errors by Harris, I can help.
Please consider Kamala Harris taps ex-‘SNL’ star for head-scratching Al Smith Dinner skit that left audience puzzled, silent
After becoming the first presidential candidate in 40 years to miss the charity event put on by the Archdiocese of New York, the Democratic nominee tried to make up for her absence by sending in a pre-recorded “comedy” skit with former “Saturday Night Live” actress Molly Shannon.
In the video, Shannon, 60, resurrected her schoolgirl alter ego Mary Katherine Gallagher to “interrupt” Harris’ formal dinner remarks and warn her not to make fun of Catholics.
The video also lampooned the Church, with Shannon saying that the Al Smith Dinner was not as important as the Last Supper and warning that all the remarks would be fact-checked by Jesus.
In football terms, a soon as someone gets over the 50 yard line, they fumble or punt.