In the German state of Saxony, no coalition is possible under stated CDU stated exclusions.
In Saxony as in the rest of Germany, the threshold for representation for parliament is 5.0 percent.
But some seats are proportioned individually so those winners are elected even if the party itself fails on threshold needs.
FDP failed on both counts and is out. AfD won 28 seats outright and nearly pulled out a victory.
Minority Government?
That’s what I expected but Eurointelligence has this election wrinkle.
Something we didn’t know until yesterday is that the German state of Saxony has a constitutional rule according to which new elections would automatically be triggered if no government is formed after six months. That rule has never been triggered, but it might be now. Sahra Wagenknecht [BSW] is running down the clock. The only way for CDU’s state premier Michael Kretschmer to form a government would be in a coalition with the SPD and Wagenknecht. The CDU has a political firewall against the Left Party. Without that firewall, he could in theory have formed a coalition with the Left Party, the SPD and the Greens. For the CDU that is not a political option, so all they are left with is Wagenknecht. The irony is that her positions are far more extreme than those of the old Left Party.
Bild writes that if there is no deal by February, many recently elected MPs will want to avoid new elections at all costs – so there might be some multi-partisan agreement on a new premier. In Germany, the votes for chancellors and premiers are always secret. That could bring the AfD closer to power. The Saxony wing of the CDU is more open towards a deal with the AfD than the nationwide CDU and Friedrich Merz.
If the final decision was left to parliamentarians, we would not be surprised if members of the state assembly would agree to vote for a candidate who might be open to a confidence and supply agreement with the AfD. That would be a massive problem for Merz.
We keep saying that we should not extrapolate the current polls. A lot can still go wrong in a year. The politics of Saxony is one of the more foreseeable accidents.
AfD Boycott
The Washington Post reports German Leader Urges Parties to Boycott Far Right After its Election Wins.
Victories for Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany in two eastern states prompted Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday to urge mainstream parties to forge coalitions without the anti-migrant party.
“All democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists,” Scholz told Reuters, describing the outcome as “bitter.”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is the leader of SPD. National support for SPD is down to a mere 16 percent. Scholz will be booted as chancellor in the 2025 national election.
Friedrich Merz is the national CDU leader.
Neither Scholz nor Merz is willing to enter a coalition with AfD or BSW because both are anti-immigration. Merz is against any coalition with the Left but SPD and the Greens aren’t.
No alignment makes any sense except CDU and AfD which see eye-to-eye on many things. But the major parties accuse AfD of Nazism and refuse to work with it.
In Saxony, who wants new elections? AfD and BSW are willing to roll the dice. But what about CDU, SPD, and the Greens?
A new election would give AfD a second chance at an outright victory. The Greens barely made the 5 percent threshold and could easily lose representation totally.
So, dear Saxony CDU, who are you going to cut a deal with? Or will it be new election?
Meanwhile, Back in the States
Harris lead on the Silver Bulletin is down to almost nothing and betting odds have surged for Trump (but it’s still close to a tossup).
I discussed this yesterday in Is the Harris Media Blitz Backfiring or Is Her Slippage Due to the Something Else?
I suspect two things, the first is a negative reaction to the media blitz and second and likely more important, the economy.
Click on the above link for details.