War and space: The effect of Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine on its space ambitions

Since the Soviet era, few sectors have evoked as much pride among Russians as their space achievements, which stand as a symbol of the nation’s glory and technological prowess. However, over the past two decades, the Kremlin’s geopolitical maneuvers in the post-Soviet space have significantly damaged this once-vibrant industry. Russian militarism and regional conflicts have led to financial constraints, technological shortages, and international isolation, casting a shadow of pessimism over the future of Russia’s space ambitions.Despite these challenges, opportunities for revitalization exist. Expanding partnerships with emerging markets, such as those in Africa, could partially help diversify revenue streams and reestablish Russia’s presence in the global space market. Additionally, Donald Trump’s victory in the United States presidential election raises the possibility of lifting sanctions on Russia, which could serve as a lifeline for Russia’s space program.Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine has profoundly impacted the country’s space ambitions. By examining these conflicts’ strategic, economic and technological repercussions, I hope to illuminate the broader challenges and potential pathways for Russia’s space industry in an increasingly competitive and interconnected world.Russo-Georgian War: a trigger for the reforms in the space industryFollowing the collapse of the Soviet Union, the space industry stood out as a rare exception among other post-Soviet institutions and sectors, managing to function even during the turbulent 1990s. Thanks to its past technological achievements and skilled human resources, the Russian space program became one of the most commercialized in the world. However, the income gained from commercial space projects proved insufficient for maintaining inherited Soviet space infrastructure and developing new groundbreaking innovations.The gap in space technology significantly impacted the Russian Federation’s military capabilities. Despite being one of the major global arms exporters since the Soviet period, the Five-Day War against Georgia in 2008 revealed the Russian military’s notable inferiority to its archrival, the West, due to its very limited C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capabilities. The key reason for this defiance was the outdated satellite constellations. For instance, the Russian analog of GPS — GLONASS — proved ineffective due to insufficient satellites. The Russian military had to depend on old Soviet maps for navigation, as they did during the Second World War. The failure of satellite constellations severely impacted the effectiveness of command and communication. Without access to satellite communication, Russian commanders and units had to rely on the Georgian civil mobile network. This factor also hindered reconnaissance operations, as the absence of fully operational satellite support made it highly challenging to deploy reconnaissance drones. In the aftermath of the Russo-Georgian War, the Kremlin allocated significant financial resources for a reliable satellite system to raise its C4ISR capabilities. Between 2008 and 2010, to restore GLONASS, the federal government allocated 67 billion Rubles ($2.4 billion). The focus on developing C4ISR capabilities led to many initiatives in the space sector, such as Skolkovo Innovative Center, a Russian equivalent of Silicon Valley, designed to foster a cluster of space and telecommunication companies and start-ups. President Medvedev was personally involved in many space and technological- activities and underlined the importance of space tech as a matter of national security.Since Georgia’s intervention, the Russian Federation has been working for over a decade to rebuild and expand its space capabilities. However, despite these efforts, the Russian Federation has stayed behind the USA and China as the third space power. In addition, despite the Kremlin’s prioritization of the space industry, the rapidly evolving global space sector significantly impacted Russia’s space industry and its financial gains. The development of the Falcon 9 launcher system by SpaceX substantially reduced Russia’s share of the launcher market. However, the most challenging times for the Russian space program were yet to come. The consequences of Russian invasion of UkraineThe Russian-Ukrainian War has showcased the unprecedented involvement of space technologies, underscoring the growing importance of C4ISR capabilities in modern warfare. This conflict marked the first instance of significant participation by commercial space companies. Notably, SpaceX’s Starlink technology has been a critical asset for the Ukrainian military, enabling navigation, reconnaissance, and communication. Without Starlink, Russia’s technological edge on the battlefield might have been more pronounced, as Ukraine’s C4ISR systems have been a primary target for Russian forces since the war’s outset. One notable instance was the hacking of Viasat Communications, which relied on satellites to operate. Viasat served as the principal communication provider for Ukraine’s government, police and military. Overall, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict highlights a growing trend of integrating space technologies and the private sector into warfare, a pattern likely to expand in future conflicts.Furthermore, the war in Ukraine demonstrated that, thanks to Russian government investments aimed at reviving the Soviet-era space infrastructure (especially satellite constellations), Russia’s military has made progress in navigation and reconnaissance. Nevertheless, communication remains a key weakness in its C4ISR capabilities and terrestrial alternatives, such as encrypted military-grade mobile devices, hardly work in complex landscapes. In contrast to the Five-Day War, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered unprecedented sanctions, severely affecting the Russian space industry, particularly Roscosmos. Early in the conflict, U.S. President Joe Biden restricted over half of technical imports to Russia to undermine its military technology development. Given the longstanding ties between Russia’s space program and its military, this decision struck a significant blow to the Russian space sector’s technical resilience.Roscosmos also suffered substantial losses in international partnerships. Following the invasion, British satellite company OneWeb canceled a billion-dollar contract with Roscosmos and suspended collaborative lunar exploration missions like Lunar-25 and Lunar-27. Additionally, the European Space Agency halted its ExoMars project with Russia. Consequently, Roscosmos has grown increasingly reliant on governmental contracts, particularly military-focused projects, as its primary responsibility is enhancing Russia’s missile and C4ISR capabilities.Since the start of the war, Ukraine has repeatedly called for sanctions against Roscosmos due to its involvement in the conflict. Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roscosmos and a vocal supporter of the “Special Military Operation,” claimed that the agency would supply 46 Sarmat ballistic missiles. Rogozin himself was wounded in occupied Ukrainian territories. Despite Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts to sanction Roscosmos for its role in the war, these initiatives have largely been unsuccessful. In response to international isolation, Roscosmos has shifted its focus to emerging markets, particularly in Africa. In 2024, the Alliance of Sahel States announced closing a deal with Russia in the space sector. Under the deal, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali will receive telecoms and surveillance satellites from Russia aimed at strengthening national security and enhancing border surveillance in these states. With the growing demand for space technologies across Africa, the continent presents an attractive market for Russia. However, while Kremlin and Roscosmos officials have portrayed these agreements as the beginning of a new era of commercialization, they offer little relief from the significant losses Roscosmos has suffered since 2022. However, given the current sanctions, restrictions on participation in international projects with major corporations, and the state’s complete control, Roscosmos has little choice but to pursue modest opportunities for survival. Ultimately, whether the Kremlin wants it or not, rescuing the future of the Russian space program requires negotiations with the West to lift sanctions and put an end to international isolation. The election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the U.S. has raised optimism about a potential negotiation process, given his stated pre-election pledge to end the conflict in Ukraine and keep Russia within the dollar-based financial system. Some experts suggest that the cooperation in the space field could serve as a starting point for the peace talks between the White House and the Kremlin, which carries the Cold War resentments. However, Donald Trump’s recent statement, which leaves open the possibility of imposing even tougher sanctions on Russia if it does not end the war in Ukraine, adds further uncertainty to the trajectory of Putin-Trump negotiations.ConclusionThe Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine has profoundly influenced the development and trajectory of Russia’s space ambitions. The Russo-Georgian War exposed critical weaknesses in Russia’s C4ISR capabilities, particularly its reliance on outdated satellite constellations and infrastructure. The lessons from the Five-Day War incentivize investments and reforms in the space industry, aiming to expand the country’s C4ISR capabilities.However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine presented even greater challenges for the space industry. While investments in satellite constellations and other military technologies have strengthened some aspects of Russia’s C4ISR capabilities, the unprecedented international sanctions following the invasion have undermined the Russian space program. These sanctions negatively affected international partnerships, halted major joint projects, and undermined Russia’s access to critical technological imports, further isolating Roscosmos and pushing it toward dependence on government and military contracts. The joint efforts of Roscosmos and the Kremlin to explore alternative space markets in the developing world are insufficient, and the Russian space program urgently needs to engage in negotiations with the West to lift sanctions. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, with his stated aim of ending the conflict in Eastern Europe and initiating dialogue with Russia, presents a significant opportunity for Roscosmos to regain its foothold in the international space market and ensure its future development.Bako Kheladze is an independent researcher and policy analyst specializing in international relations and security, with a focus on Iran and Eurasia. He holds a master’s degree in International Security Studies from the University of Leicester. With experience as a press officer at the Georgia Embassy to the Islamic Republic of Iran, Bako has developed expertise in diplomacy and regional security analysis. Fluent in Georgian, Russian, Persian, and English. Bako is also the author of several articles on regional security and geopolitical issues.SpaceNews is committed to publishing our community’s diverse perspectives. Whether you’re an academic, executive, engineer or even just a concerned citizen of the cosmos, send your arguments and viewpoints to [email protected] to be considered for publication online or in our next magazine. The perspectives shared in these op-eds are solely those of the authors.