The Biden bounce, what little there was, appears to be over already.
Biden’s Gains Vanish
Bloomberg reports Biden’s Gains Against Trump Vanish on Deep Economic Pessimism, Poll Shows
The April Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Biden is ahead in just one of the seven states most likely to determine the outcome of his matchup with Donald Trump, leading Michigan by 2 percentage points. Biden trails the presumptive GOP nominee slightly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and his deficit in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina is larger.
Those results are largely a return to the previous state of the presidential race, before a strong State of the Union address appeared to power Biden in March to his best showing in the monthly poll since it began in October.
The reversion comes as poll respondents offered a bleak near-term view of the economy, the issue that has consistently registered as their top concern at the ballot box. A majority of swing-state voters see worsening economic conditions in the coming months, with fewer than one in five saying they expect inflation and borrowing costs to be lower by the end of the year. Despite a resilient job market, only 23% of respondents said the employment rate would improve over the same time period.
Voters Blame Biden
More than three quarters of poll respondents said the president is responsible for the current performance of the US economy, and nearly half said he was “very responsible.”
How Important is Abortion?
Independent voters in Arizona say they trust Biden over Trump on that issue by 12 percentage points. Among suburban women in the state, it’s a 25-point advantage.
Trump has tried to moderate his position on abortion, saying the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade — made possible by three justices he appointed — means that the decision of each state “must be the law of the land.” He then said the Arizona Supreme Court decision went too far.
Split Ticketers
Biden’s six-point deficit across the swing states is even wider than that of Democratic congressional candidates, who trail Republicans by two points. That hints that more voters have a sour view of Biden than his party overall.
Those ticket-splitters — voters who say they’ll vote for Trump for president but a Democrat for Congress — are far more pessimistic about the economy than those who split their voters the other way, Biden for president and a Republican for Congress.
The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona
On April 17, I wrote The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona, It Could Cost Republicans Dearly
That’s still my position with an emphasis on the word “could”.
But my main position remains the same: Blacks and young voters upset at rent and the prices of homes are more than a bit angry right now. If they stay angry and switch to Trump, or simply sit the election out, Trump will win.
For discussion, please see People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Biden barely won the election in 2020 despite record turnout and 91 percent of the vote from blacks and young voters.
My base case is that will not happen again. But I caution it’s still early.