Vladimir Putin “fundamentally misjudges” Ukraine‘s ability to withstand renewed efforts to extend Russia‘s advances across the entire frontline, new analysis has shown.
Russia has launched new operations across the Belgorod-Kharkiv regional border over the past two weeks in an attempt to grab more land while Kyiv waits for new military reinforcements to arrive from the US and Germany.
But while Moscow has achieved multiple wins in the short-term, Washington-based think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Putin likely underestimated how much the new aid would strengthen the capabilities of Kyiv’s defence forces.
In its latest assessment of the situation, the ISW wrote: “Limited Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast suggest that Putin and the Russian military command may be evaluating the risks, prospects, and timeline of offensive operations based on the assumption that Russian forces will be able to advance in any area of the front and consolidate any gains without having to account for Ukrainian tactical counterattacks or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation in the future.
“Putin likely has made this assumption based on months of gradual grains throughout eastern Ukraine, but this calculus fundamentally misjudges the tactical capabilities that Ukrainian forces will have once US security assistance begins to arrive to the front at scale.”
The think tank noted that Putin “emphatically downplayed” Ukraine’s ability to withstand and respond to attacks along the whole frontline since the beginning of the conflict.
The ISW suggested the Russian president has fostered the belief that Ukraine “will not be able to liberate territory seized” – arguing Kyiv should exploit the arrival of new equipment to significantly push back.
They added: “It is imperative for Ukrainian forces to be able to pursue large-scale counteroffensive operations that liberate Russian-occupied territory as soon as conditions permit.
“Otherwise Putin will likely continue to believe that he can pursue grinding offensive operations indefinitely and force Ukraine into the strategic defence until achieving victory.”
Earlier today, Putin said that Russia‘s offensive in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region aims to create a buffer zone but has no plans to capture the city.
He claimed Moscow launched attacks in the Kharkiv region in response to the Ukrainian shelling of Russia’s Belgorod region.
“I have said publicly that if it continues we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone,” he said.
Putin said that Russian troops were “advancing daily according to plan” and said that there were no plans to capture Kharkiv, for now.