Vladimir Putin could have been driven out of Ukraine for good as early as last year if the West hadn’t taken its eye of the ball, analysts have told Daily Express US.
The US this week announced a major $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine after months of delay due to Republican opposition.
While experts agree this vital support will help Kyiv continue to fend off Putin’s troops, one said the West missed a key opportunity to put an end to the conflict once and for all.
Brandon Weichert, a National Security Analyst for The National Interest, told Daily Express US: “There was a moment a year-and-a-half ago when the Ukrainians successfully defended Kyiv.
“At that moment, the Ukrainians had maximum leverage over the Russians. The Istanbul Conference was occurring simultaneously with the successful defense of Kyiv.
“At that moment, the Ukrainians had maximum leverage over the Russians. The Istanbul Conference was occurring simultaneously with the successful defense of Kyv.
“That was the moment in which Kyiv could have secured a peace deal with the Russians and maintained a free Western portion of Ukraine under Kyiv’s control. Sadly, the Americans and British scuttled the Istanbul Conference and then pressured the Zelensky government to abandon their attempts to make peace.”
Now, the much-needed lethal aid won’t go far enough to defeat the Russians, according to Mr Weichert.
He said: “Today, the Russians are operating at peak efficiency and, despite the Western aid, the Ukrainians are crumbling.
“Not only will they be unlikely to win the war in any meaningful sense of the term ‘win’ but it is unlikely that the Putinist regime in Moscow will be amenable to a peace deal or truce of any kind.
“Western intransigence has escalated this conflict in Ukraine to such a point that the Russians will not accept anything less than the total destruction of the Ukrainian state. All of this was avoidable.”
And he warned that as the West continues to arm Ukraine, Putin’s counterparts will do the same for him.
Mr Weichert said: “Do not expect Russia‘s allies to abandon it, if for only the simple reason that Russia looks stronger to them and more likely to win and none of those countries wants to be on the wrong side of a victorious Russia.
“The Americans botched this war from mid-2022 onward. The Ukrainians are, sadly, going to pay the ultimate price for that botching.”
Professor John R. Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Economic Geography at the University of Birmingham, agreed that the West missed its chance to see out the war.
He told Daily Express US: “Ukraine could have won the Russian-Ukrainian war last year if all countries supporting Ukraine had provided the country with access to the resources and military capabilities required.
“In December 2022, all countries interested in upholding international law by supporting Ukraine should have provided all the military kit required to push Russia out of Ukraine.”
He added that this did not happen for many reasons, one being that too many countries are afraid of escalating the war.
Prof Bryson added: “By holding back their support, or drip-feeding support, all that has happened is that the conflict has been intensified and extended and there has also been an escalation in the scale of the military threat that comes from Russia.”
Although there have been delays along the way, the US gave more than $40billion in military to Ukraine February 2022 and January 2024, according to German research organisation the Kiel Institute.
But Prof Bryson warned: “It might be too late for Ukraine to win back its territory and all that might happen is some type of holding action in which Ukraine prevents Russia from acquiring more territory, but only for a time.
“The danger is that Ukraine needs certainty regarding the level of support required.”
He added that there needs to be a clear message sent to Russia that Ukraine will be given whatever it needs to win this war.
Tyler Mitchell