Policy is not the impediment to increasing space weather preparedness in the United States; the lack of funding is. U.S. space weather policy is alive and well under the continued coordination and oversight of the director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). In fact, the topic of space weather is a great example of policy success. It is a highly technical hazard that is harder to visualize than a hurricane or earthquake, yet it is a persistent and credible risk to our economy and society. In recognition of this risk, space weather has had intense policy action over the last 10 years, with Executive Orders, legislation, national strategies and action plans and Federal Advisory Committee Act advisory reports and recommendations. It is hard to imagine space weather needing more policy process; however, what it does need is sustained prioritization across federal stakeholder agencies and funding commitments by agency heads, the President and ultimately Congress. There are many, outstanding, well-honed recommendations and actions that must be implemented to ensure the U.S. maintains its current level of preparedness and especially to improve it. The 2023 Space Weather Advisory Group (SWAG) report identified 11 priority actions, many of which remain incomplete and require space weather programs to be sufficiently funded.
How we got hereThe federal interagency body for space weather, SWORM, was created by the director of the OSTP in 2014 under the framework of National Science and Technology Council to address research, operational and mitigation issues and is staffed by senior federal decision makers and key White House officials. In 2016, Executive Order 13744 identified the space weather roles and responsibilities of federal agencies. In 2020, Congress codified this interagency body and agency authorities in the PROSWIFT Act.
The decision to establish SWORM deliberately transformed the way the U.S. formulates and implements space weather policy by bringing together high-level, senior decision makers and technical experts from over 20 federal stakeholder agencies including all elements of the scientific and national and homeland security enterprises.
Before SWORM, the coordination of space weather policy was more limited and siloed, lacking White House direction and largely focused on science and observations. SWORM, on the other hand, follows the paradigm of other long-standing OSTP-coordinated interagency policy groups that were established to address significant challenges, risks and opportunities that require the authority of multiple agencies.
SWORM has succeeded in improving the way the U.S. approaches the risk of space weather. National stakeholders are more aware of space weather than ever before, and the nation is better prepared for a space weather event than we were 10 years ago. This is, in part, showcased by the fact that the most intense geomagnetic disturbance of the last 20 years, the Gannon Storm in May, 2024, had limited reported consequences to infrastructure services thanks to increased awareness, better observations and forecasting, and improved operational action by infrastructure owners. However, an area of growing concern that needs more research is space weather effects on the thermosphere which currently lacks observations, models and forecasts to sufficiently inform space traffic coordination and the growing space-based economy. The sudden neutral density expansion of the thermosphere during the storm taxed the ability of LEO satellites to maintain orbits and payload pointing. Additionally, it is important to note that the Gannon storm was not a Carrington class event and thus the U.S. must continue to plan and invest in improved observations, forecasting and preparedness.
National preparedness for space weather requires expertise and participation beyond the federal government. The private sector has rich technical expertise and deep capabilities and owns much of the critical infrastructure that would be affected by space weather. However, the Federal government is restricted in how it can solicit external input. To overcome this, Congress mandated the creation of SWAG, which brings together end users, academics and commercial space experts. SWAG members report to SWORM and advise all federal stakeholder agencies. Though it is important to note that SWAG, like all external advisory groups, cannot make policy, provide federal budgetary oversight, or enforce compliance.
In its relatively short existence (it first met in 2021), SWAG has served as a strong conduit for community input into the federal government policy process. SWAG released a report in 2023 with a series of community-informed recommendations, some of which SWORM agencies have already implemented — including increased prioritization of space weather at OSTP and the process to protect key space weather spectrum from interference. SWAG plans to release a user-needs survey report soon, which will provide findings and recommendations gleaned from users of space weather products across five industry sectors and the research community.
There are two groups beyond SWAG that have different, non-competing roles that were established to inform the government on space weather. The National Academy of Science, Engineering and Medicine Space Weather Roundtable was mandated by Congress in the 2020 PROSWIFT Act. The roundtable is a forum for the government, academic community and commercial space sector to discuss activities and facilitate advances. It does not write reports or provide advice to the government. Although not mandated by PROSWIFT, in 2022, NASA created its own space weather advisory group under the Heliophysics Advisory Committee (HPAC). This Space Weather Council is a community-based, interdisciplinary forum for soliciting and coordinating community analysis and input as tasked by HPAC, focusing on NASA-specific issues including research.
Looking to the futureDespite its broad remit, many within the space weather community mistakenly think SWAG is an advisory group for NOAA. SWAG is administered by NOAA, but reports to OSTP, provides independent advice to all SWORM agencies, and serves as the conduit for community input. To meet the changing needs of SWORM, agencies should be empowered to engage the community through SWAG to address their unique needs. To accomplish this, the SWAG charter needs to be expanded to allow the creation of subgroups bringing on additional expertise as needed, and SWORM should create a process to review and approve member agencies’ requests for SWAG advice and studies.
The U.S. space weather policy process is not perfect. While SWORM continues to make progress, there are a growing number of incomplete priority actions identified in executive orders, national strategies, and legislation. Some of these priorities include long-term support for continuity of critical operational observations, the development of new observations, and fundamental science necessary to advance space weather research. These need to be linked through a functional and funded research-to-operations process.
Now that SWAG has been charted and is providing guidance, the list of priorities will continue to grow. OSTP must continue to prioritize space weather, SWORM agencies must ensure these actions are included in the annual President’s Budget Request, and Congress must ensure they are sufficiently funded.
Tamara Dickinson is President of Science Matters Consulting, LLC. She previously served as Principal Assistant Director for Environment and Energy at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy where she co-chaired the SWORM and led the development of the first National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan.