U.S. military space tracking systems strain under new threats

U.S. military officials are scrambling to upgrade decades-old systems that track objects in space — a critical capability they say is falling dangerously behind modern threats — as thousands of new satellites crowd Earth’s orbit and rival powers demonstrate increasingly sophisticated space capabilities.Military leaders and industry experts warn that this Cold War-era tracking infrastructure and manual processes are ill-equipped to handle today’s complex space environment, where adversaries’ satellites can perform unpredictable maneuvers and new commercial launches happen almost daily.At Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, military space trackers perform the crucial but labor-intensive task of maintaining the space catalog that the global space community relies on for flight safety. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) — a global system of ground-based radars, optical telescopes and space-based sensors — currently monitors approximately 47,000 objects in orbit, including active satellites and masses of space debris. Space Force operators analyze raw sensor data to determine objects’ positions and velocity vectors, using mathematical models to predict their future locations.But experts say this manual approach to orbit determination and tracking is becoming unsustainable as low Earth orbit grows more congested and satellites perform increasingly complex maneuvers. Instead, they argue the military must transition to advanced machine learning systems that can be trained on historical orbital patterns and debris data to automatically identify space objects and determine their size, speed, and origin.The challenge is particularly acute in geosynchronous orbit (GEO), a critical zone roughly 22,236 miles above Earth where many military communications and early warning satellites operate.A wakeup callIn early 2022, a Chinese spacecraft called Shijian-21 quietly demonstrated technology that rang alarm bells at the Pentagon: it successfully towed one of China’s dead navigation satellites into a “graveyard orbit” above the geostationary belt where many critical military satellites operate.Such recent incidents have highlighted the need for better space monitoring capabilities in GEO.The maneuver wasn’t disclosed by China. A commercial company, ExoAnalytic Solutions, spotted and reported the operation. While China claimed Shijian-21’s mission was space debris removal, U.S. military officials warned that the same capability — to approach, grapple, and relocate satellites — could be used to interfere with or disable other nations’ spacecraft.Space Force Chief Gen. Chance Saltzman said “comprehensive and actionable” space domain awareness must be a cornerstone of U.S. strategy for competing with China, and essential for maintaining secure access to space, deterring adversary actions and achieving space superiority during potential conflicts.ExoAnalytic’s ExoMaps platform shows the activities of the SJ-21 spacecraft including its docking and removal of the COMPASS-G2 spacecraft. Credit: ExoAnalytic.The U.S. military is seeing a “breathtaking pace of development,” particularly from China, when it comes to advanced spacecraft, said Gen. Stephen Whiting, the head of U.S. Space Command.Adding to these concerns, the breakup of the Intelsat 33e satellite in geostationary orbit in October has created a new threat landscape. The incident generated over 700 pieces of debris, ranging from softball-sized fragments to pieces as large as car doors. Unlike debris in lower orbits that eventually falls back to Earth, these fragments will remain indefinitely in the geostationary belt.With Russia also developing similar satellite-manipulation technologies, experts say the U.S. can no longer rely on Cold War-era approaches to space domain awareness.A debris field, for example, could provide cover for adversaries to secretly launch additional objects into orbit. The chaos of a major satellite breakup could mask other activities, and the U.S. needs persistent and comprehensive monitoring, whether it’s for military threats or for spaceflight safety, said Brien Flewelling, director of strategic program development at ExoAnalytic Solutions.Government and commercial techTracking military spending on space domain awareness is challenging since it spans multiple programs and budget lines. However, budget analysts at the consulting firm Velos have identified roughly $854 million in the Space Force’s fiscal year 2025 budget proposal under “space domain awareness and combat power” programs. This is only a request as Congress has yet to pass a final funding billCongressional defense committees, meanwhile, in reports accompanying their markup of the proposed budget have pressed the Space Force to supplement government capabilities with commercial services. These recommendations align with broader calls from industry experts and military officials to leverage private sector innovations in tracking and monitoring space objects.Today, the Space Force’s primary system for analyzing data collected by the SSN is the Space Defense Operations Center (SPADOC), designed when space debris was the main concern. But now the environment includes sophisticated threats such as China’s in-orbit servicing spacecraft that have demonstrated complex orbital maneuvers that strain tracking capabilities.Despite years of development, efforts to modernize space tracking infrastructure have moved slowly. The Advanced Tracking and Launch Analysis System (ATLAS), intended to replace SPADOC, was finally handed over to the Space Force in December 2024 for final testing after years of delays.While officials expect ATLAS to become operational this year, bringing automated catalog maintenance and improved tracking, experts say even this upgraded system may not be enough. They argue that the military needs a broader suite of capabilities beyond established programs like ATLAS to effectively monitor increasingly dynamic space operations.“The emerging space threat is no longer emerging. It is here,” wrote former Space Command officials John Shaw and Sean Kirkpatrick in a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report. He noted that both China and Russia have deployed space weapons aimed at undermining U.S. military advantages.Shaw, a retired Space Force general and former deputy commander of U.S. Space Command, likened current space domain awareness efforts to “searching for our keys under a streetlight” — focusing on easily accessible data rather than developing more sophisticated monitoring capabilities.AI as a solutionOne answer could be artificial intelligence.“Space domain awareness is going to be increasingly automated,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said at CSIS during his final week in office. “There are thousands of satellites, and monitoring all that and tracking it without a high degree of automation is impossible.”Kendall emphasized that future conflicts will require AI-enabled decision making “at machine speed, not at human speed” — a stark departure from current processes that still heavily rely on human operators.A November RAND Corporation report, commissioned by the Air Force Chief Scientist’s office, suggests artificial intelligence and machine learning could significantly enhance space monitoring capabilities. The study outlines how AI could optimize sensor tasking, speed up orbital calculations, and more efficiently identify potential satellite collisions.RAND analysts warn that the Space Force will be increasingly challenged by the launch of new constellations, maneuverable assets and activities from noncooperative actors in space.“Quicker response times are necessary, and improvements in decision making timelines are essential,” the analysts wrote. “With strategic competitors increasing their presence in space, effective defense requires enhanced capabilities to characterize and forecast space objects’ behavior.”Commercial companies are already demonstrating AI’s potential. Slingshot Aerospace, for example, has developed tools to detect unusual satellite behavior. ExoAnalytic Solutions, LeoLabs and others are using artificial intelligence to analyze vast amounts of sensor data.Despite commercial innovations, integration with military programs has been slow.A Booz Allen Hamilton report found that while U.S. Space Command’s Joint Commercial Operations cell acquires raw data from private companies for specific projects, the Department of Defense has yet to fully embrace commercial managed services offering comprehensive analytics.“There’s an opportunity to either go full commercial or some type of a hybrid approach,” said Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, commander of the Space Systems Command.The service is experimenting with a pilot program called the Consolidated Operational Data Archive (CODA) to streamline access to commercial space monitoring data.Flewelling said the current process “with military operators in uniform processing data manually is a bottleneck.” He stressed the military needs modern space situational awareness systems where dynamic and unpredictable behavior is characterized autonomously.While satellites already operate autonomously in orbit, a much deeper level of artificial intelligence will be needed as space becomes more congested. Future satellites will need onboard intelligence similar to self-driving cars, allowing them to independently detect and avoid debris or potential threats without waiting for human commands from the ground.A screenshot from ExoAnalytic’s ExoMaps platform shows the tracked debris from the Intelsat 33e breakup from October. Credit: ExoAnalyticFlewelling points to the Air Force’s concept of drone swarms as a potential model for future space operations. Just as the Air Force envisions large groups of unmanned aircraft working together with minimal human oversight, future satellite networks could operate as coordinated swarms, with individual spacecraft making autonomous decisions while contributing to broader mission objectives.These space-based swarms could range from dozens to thousands of satellites operating in concert, dramatically expanding monitoring capabilities while reducing the burden on human operators.Former Pentagon official Josh Hartman, now chief strategy officer at LightRidge Solutions, said a key technology that needs to proliferate is edge computing — processing data directly on orbital sensors.“That’s going to allow us to make sense of the data we’re seeing on orbit while we’re collecting it,” he said.But he notes that despite broad agreement on the need, formal military requirements and funding haven’t materialized. “Everybody knows we need it, but there’s no requirements, so there’s therefore no funding,” Hartman noted.Looking aheadThe Space Force isn’t sitting still. The Space Systems Command is seeking industry input on next-generation tracking capabilities, and plans to request funding in the coming budget proposals.Col. Bryon McClain, who oversees space domain awareness combat power at Space Systems Command, said the military is considering options to field a proliferated surveillance architecture for GEO orbit.The Space Security and Defense Program, a joint Defense Department and intelligence community initiative, has solicited industry input on advanced space domain awareness technologies that are expected to be ready for deployment in the 2030-2040 timeframe. The program specifically seeks capabilities to address threats in what it calls a “dynamic and proliferated environment.”This market research is being done in parallel to a comprehensive “force design” study led by the Space Force to shape requirements for space domain awareness.In their analysis, Shaw and Kirkpatrick called for “more aggressive and sophisticated ways and means to improve SDA.”Their recommendations include greater reliance on space-based sensors that combine multiple detection methods — including electro-optical cameras, radar and radio frequency sensing — along with “active illumination” of space objects to enable more precise tracking.They also emphasize the need for better “data fusion” — the ability to simultaneously integrate and analyze information from all available sources, whether from traditional military sensors, allies or commercial providers. Despite the wealth of data available, they note that current systems struggle to fully utilize this information.Progress has been hampered, they argue, by the delayed transfer of space traffic management responsibilities to the Department of Commerce, a transition ordered by presidential directive in 2018.“Commerce needs the appropriate funding (insufficient to date), capabilities, and workforce to achieve this transition,” they wrote. The slower-than-expected shift has kept military resources tied up in basic tracking tasks rather than focusing on more sophisticated space domain awareness capabilities.Looking ahead, Shaw and Kirkpatrick suggested further reforms are needed in data-sharing policies to better integrate allies and commercial partners.As space becomes increasingly contested, the pressure to modernize tracking systems continues to mount.“What we shouldn’t do is study the problem for the next 10 years,” warned ExoAnalytic’s Flewelling, “because then we’ll just be reacting to the systems that are fielded by our competitors.”As Kendall emphasized, decisions in future space conflicts will need to be made at machine speed, not human speed.The challenge now is ensuring America’s space monitoring capabilities can keep pace with that reality.This article first appeared in the February 2025 issue of SpaceNews Magazine with the title “Modernizing Space Tracking.”