By applying pressure on both sides, I expect Trump will succeed on a good deal.
Good Move by Trump, No NATO
I am pleased to report Trump Says He and Putin Agreed to Begin Talks on Ending Ukraine War
President Trump said he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Wednesday had agreed to open immediate talks to end the war in Ukraine in a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” between the two leaders.
Hegseth on Wednesday called the prospect of Ukraine returning to its pre-2014 borders “an unrealistic objective.” That represents a rhetorical shift for the U.S., which under the Biden administration said that Russia needed to negotiate an outcome with Ukraine. U.S. officials had only privately conceded that Ukraine could reach an agreement with Russia by agreeing to a cease-fire along existing battle lines in Ukraine.
He also took Ukraine’s accession into the political-military bloc off the table: “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”
Zelensky said last month that he could accept a cease-fire that effectively would leave occupied territory in Moscow’s hands if the rest of Ukraine were given protection by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Alexander Vindman, a former White House national security council adviser under the Biden administration, called Hegseth’s statement on NATO a “complete capitulation” and a “major blow to U.S. national security” that will embolden the Russian leader, who has demanded that Ukraine drop its ambitions to join the alliance.
Hegseth didn’t address the extent of weapons and military support the U.S. would provide Ukraine. According to the State Department, as of Jan. 20, the U.S. had provided Ukraine with $65.9 billion in military support. That has slowed significantly under the Trump administration.
“We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,” Hegseth said.
Hegseth Three Key Points
- “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”
- Hegseth called the prospect of Ukraine returning to its pre-2014 borders “an unrealistic objective.”
- “We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”
Ukraine is in no position to demand anything.
A Peace Deal Threat to Security?!
As for Alexander Vindman’s comment that NATO a “complete capitulation” and a “major blow to U.S. national security” that will embolden the Russian leader … I suggest we send Vindman to the front line.
The notion that a peace deal is a threat to security when Putin could not even defeat Ukraine and is seriously weakened militarily and economically is ridiculous.
The only way Russia would ever agree to talks is to take the UN off the table. Trump understands Putin’s red lines.
What’s Trump’s Threat Against Putin?
All we have seen so far is that Zelensky is impotent. He will have to take whatever terms Putin and Trump agree to.
So, why should Putin deal at all?
The answer is weapons for minerals.
Trump’s Idea to Exchange Aid for Rare Earths
Please consider Ukraine Open to Trump’s Idea to Exchange Aid for Rare Earths—But There’s a Catch
President Trump has indicated he is open to supplying Ukraine with more weapons in exchange for access to the country’s mineral resources. Ukraine is on board, but putting the plan into practice might not be so easy: Many of the minerals of greatest interest to the U.S. are in areas under Russian occupation or threatened by Moscow’s advance.
As a result, access to valuable Ukrainian natural resources will depend, at least in part, on the battle for eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces are currently advancing slowly but steadily.
That’s especially true for rare earths, a collection of minerals that have become essential in certain high-tech industries, including defense and renewable energy—in which Trump has expressed particular interest. Currently, the majority of the world’s supply of rare earths come from China.
“We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earths and other things,” Trump said, speaking at the White House on Monday.
Though rare earth deposits have been found in several parts of Ukraine, by far the largest known field is in territory that spans the frontline in eastern Ukraine, according to maps published by the Ukrainian Geological Survey, the state regulator for mineral resources.
Western experts expressed some skepticism that some of Ukraine’s minerals—including rare earths—could be mined anytime in the near future.
“The biggest flaw with this plan is that most reserves are located in areas of Ukraine that are under Russian control or very close to front lines, meaning no one will be able to mine and process the materials,” said Wolf-Christian Paes, a senior fellow for armed conflict at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “These assets will be hard to access without a lasting peace in Ukraine. A ceasefire isn’t enough.”
In addition, rare earths are very expensive to mine, and the known deposits in Ukraine are much smaller than those in the U.S., said George Ingall, a price analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.
Minerals Unavailable
Q: Does it matter?
A: No
What matters to Putin is Trump’s threat to give more weapons to Ukraine to get them.
Thus, Trump is pressuring both Ukraine and Russia. With Ukraine in no position to bargain for anything.
McCain’s “Legacy” Lives On
On August 26, 2018, I wrote McCain’s “Legacy” Lives On: What “Legacy” Is That?
McCain’s Legacy
- In the 15-year war in Afghanistan wasting over a trillion dollars.
- In drone policy, where the US military gets to act as prosecutor, judge and jury, where innocent lives are tossed aside as “collateral damage”.
- in support of useless weapons systems like the F-35 that McCain supported.
- In asinine foreign policy in Syria and Iran.
- In hypocrites and comedians like Kathy Griffin singing the praise of McCain.
- In mainstream media looking the other way when thousands of innocent children are killed in Yemen.
- In support of torture programs despite McCain himself being tortured.
- In support of holding people with no charge in prisons in Cuba.
- In support of meddling in Ukraine while accusing Russia of meddling in the US.
- In support of sanctions that kill or harm innocent people.
What’s the Real Background Story Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?
On February 24, 2022, I discussed The Real Background Story Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.
What Happened in Ukraine?
The mess today in Ukraine has its roots in the 2014 when democratically elected Ukrainian President Yanukovych was toppled in a US-backed coup.
Q: Why did the US want to get rid of Yanukovych?
A: Because he was against Ukraine joining NATO.
McCain dined with Svoboda Party leader Oleg Tyagnibok. The Svoboda Party is a group of neo-Nazis.
The citizens of Ukraine were used as pawns in yet another US mission that backfired.
Well who cares about Neo-Nazis as long as they want Ukraine in NATO.
And that’s the rest of the story US media will not discuss.
This no way absolves Putin, but US meddling backfires again, and again, and again.
US Meddling
US meddling made a mess in Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, Israel, and damn near every place we have meddled.
The way to stop meddling is to impose a severe penalty of those who support such actions. Guess what. Meddling would stop instantaneously.
I propose Lindsey Graham should stay in Ukraine and lead the charge. Senator Chuck Schumer should join him Graham on the front line.
We cannot afford these idiotic wars and history suggests we should not try even if we could afford them. We wasted trillions upon trillions of dollars and all we have done is make more enemies.
Mish Flashbacks
August 27, 2022: Ukraine Violent Stalemate Sets In, How Long Can It Last?
Ultimately, this will end in a negotiated settlement.
How long can Ukraine deal with 60% inflation? EU with energy costs? Russia with difficulty in getting parts and losing military equipment?
September 7, 2022: Q&A on Putin and Energy Price Caps, Does Anyone Have a Better Idea?
Two Good Ideas
- End the sanctions.
- Prepare for a negotiated settlement whether Ukraine likes it or not.
Instead, we are doing the opposite, compete with people suggesting there are no batter things to do than something that is downright asinine.
November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?
A Tweet from NATO appears to back a negotiated peace in Ukraine. That was followed hours later by an official denial. What gives?
…
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
March 16, 2024: Ukraine Won’t Win the War, It’s Time for a New Strategy
What’s the Goal?
On November 7, 2023, I asked If the US Has a Goal in Ukraine or Israel, What the Hell Is It?
We still don’t have a clearly defined goal or a clearly defined amount of money we are willing to spend.
But we do know that support for endless wars is not unlimited.
President Biden on Putin
On March 26, President Biden proclaimed “For God’s Sake, this Man Cannot Remain in Power”
The Wall Street Journal and perpetual warmongers agreed.
On March 29 I pointed out all the loopholes in sanctions on Russia, For discussion, please see Misguided Souls Still Do Not Understand This Simple Truth: Sanctions Don’t Work
In 2022, I said the war would end in a negotiated settlement and nobody would win.
What did I get wrong?
The sad thing is US meddling precipitated this whole sorry affair.
It’s time for a new strategy and a goal: Negotiated settlement.
If we supply Ukraine with anything, we should only do so if it aids that goal. For now, we still have no goals.
Of all my comments above this set from 2023 was the best.
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
People told me I was wrong in response to each of those posts. The Chamberlain brigade was out in force despite Putin being too weak to threaten any NATO country.
Have we had enough death and destruction yet, accelerated by political events in the US?
I think so.
Meanwhile, please make a note that we are here due to US meddling, supported by neocons, the WSJ, and senators McCain and Graham every step of the way.
Even House Speaker Mike Johnson got in on the act after pledging no more aid to Ukraine.
Trump will put an end to this nonsense. Thank you president Trump.