The Center Left was hammered but another “Grand Coalition” appears likely.
International Reaction
Here’s the International Reaction to German Election
Trump on Truth Social
“Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years. This is a great day for Germany.”French President Emmanuel Macron on X
“I just spoke with Friedrich Merz to congratulate him on his victory in the German elections. “I also had an exchange with Olaf Scholz to express my friendship on this evening. “We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany and work towards a strong and sovereign Europe. In this time of uncertainty, we are united to face the major challenges of the world and our continent.”British Prime Minister Keir Starmer
“Congratulations to Friedrich Merz and CDU/CSU for the results in Germany’s election.Ukrainian President Voldymr Zelensky on X
“I congratulate the CDU/CSU and Friedrich Merz on their victory in the Bundestag elections. A clear voice from the voters, and we see how important this is for Europe.“We look forward to continuing our joint work with Germany to protect lives, bring real peace closer to Ukraine, and strengthen Europe.
“Europe must be able to defend itself, develop its industries, and achieve the necessary results. Europe needs shared successes, and those success will bring even greater unity to Europe.”
How Long to Build a Coalition?
Had FDP and BSW managed to get 5 percent, a Grand Coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD may not have been possible.
Now it looks doable, but the results will be anything but Grand.
Regardless, with less than 30 percent of the vote, Merz Will Have a Very Weak Hand
Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor but he heads into coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand.
While his CDU/CSU emerged as the largest bloc, it scored its second worst post-war result.
It remains uncertain whether he will need one or two partners to form a majority.
Lengthy coalition talks could leave Scholz in a caretaker role for months.
That would delay urgently needed policies to revive the German economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.
It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe as it deals with a host of challenges such as Trump threatening a trade war and attempting to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.
“We have eight weeks now until Easter, and I think that is enough time, enough maximum time in which to form a government … If we have one partner it will be easier, if we need two partners it will be harder, but even in that case it will have to be successful, ” Merz said during a post-exit poll roundtable with other leaders.
“The main thing is to create a government in Germany that is capable of acting as quickly as possible, with a good parliamentary majority. Because dear friends, the world out there is not waiting for us and it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations.”
Good luck with any quick parliamentary decisions. CDU and SPD disagree on green policy, immigration, defense, and industrial policy.
Merz would do better with AfD.
NATO Won’t Last in Present Form
The reaction from the winner is interesting. Please consider Merz Questions the Longevity of NATO’s ‘Current Form’
“I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump’s remarks last week…it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe,” Merz told German public broadcaster ARD.
Last week, the Trump administration shocked European allies by telling them they must take care of their own security and rely less on the United States, while announcing talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine without involving Europe.
Referring to a NATO summit scheduled for June, Merz said he was curious to see “whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form then or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.
On Friday, Merz told public broadcaster ZDF that Germany would need to come to terms with the possibility that Trump might not stick with NATO’s mutual-defence pledge unrestrictedly.
He said this meant that Berlin might need to become less reliant on the U.S. with regard to their nuclear umbrella, too, and advocated talks with Europe’s nuclear powers France and Britain about an expansion of their nuclear protection.
Without a doubt Europe will need to depend more on itself. Germany is deindustrializing and Trump demands more for Europe on defense spending.
Merz will not be able to deliver 5 percent or 3 percent. I question it it will deliver 2 percent.
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Factor in tariffs. Germany is in political and economic trouble.