Both Trump and his border czar are sending strong messages that Trump’s deportation plan won’t live up to his campaign hype.
Watered Down Deportation Effort
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Allies Fear Watered Down Deportation Efforts
Donald Trump ran for president on a bold promise: to carry out the largest mass deportation in U.S. history.
Now, a little over a month before he takes office, some allies are worried that a shift in rhetoric from the president-elect could portend a watered down removal effort and are urging him not to scale back his plans.
In the weeks since the election, and even in some rally speeches toward the end of the campaign, Trump and his incoming advisers have alluded to a mass removal effort of immigrants with a criminal record, a far narrower set of people than the 15 million to 20 million Trump pledged to deport earlier in the year. Tom Homan, the president-elect’s incoming border czar, has said Trump’s team isn’t planning to perform mass raids in immigrant enclaves—the worst fear of immigrants-rights activists.
“This isn’t going to be neighborhood sweeps and military vehicles going through the city,” Homan said in an interview with Dr. Phil McGraw on Thursday after meeting with New York Mayor Eric Adams. “I told him, you know, President Trump and myself have committed that this is going to be a targeted enforcement operation.”
The emphasis on criminals reflects not only what Trump considers to be the highest priority but a practical understanding of the complexity of rounding up millions of migrants, a person familiar with the matter said. While Trump remains committed to a deportation effort, his team is mindful of those realities and wants to set expectations.
The decision also reflects some concern over economic impacts to key sectors such as housing and agriculture, the person said. Through it all, a focus on criminals has been the animating force of Trump’s message, as he repeatedly highlights instances of migrants committing crimes such as sexual assault or murder.
Behind the scenes, Homan has emphasized pursuing immigrants with final orders of removal and criminals that the government can easily reach, according to people familiar with the matter. Roughly 1.3 million migrants already have orders of deportation from an immigration court.
“I keep getting asked, ‘how many people are you going to deport?’” Homan said in a brief interview. “Well, I don’t know. It depends on the resources we’re given.”
Trump’s hard-line immigration backers say they have noticed a retrenchment. They say they are holding their fire to attempt to influence the incoming president before they criticize him openly.
The president-elect’s allies also are concerned by the Trump team’s willingness to exclude some categories of migrants. Trump said in a recent interview with NBC, for example, that he wanted to work with Democrats to come up with legislation to protect Dreamers, immigrants in the U.S. illegally who were brought as children, from deportation. Backers of hard-line immigration policies view an exemption for Dreamers, who often have bipartisan support, as a slippery slope.
Deal for Dreamers
I suspect Trump privately got some heat from some governors who understand the economic insanity of “deport them all”.
Regardless why, I get to say “I told you so” once again to those who cling to every word Trump says.
To get a bill through congress for more border patrols, ICE agents, and to finish the wall, Trump is going to have to cut a deal.
And that deal will be amnesty for dreamers.
On November 30, I noted A Tiny Republican Majority in the House Will Make Legislation Difficult
How many balanced budget hypocrites do you expect to see when Trump proposes big budget deficit increases?
Here’s the deal. If there are many as two defections, Republicans will not be able to pass much of anything if Trump tries to deliver his campaign promises like no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no tax on overtime.
The incumbent party usually loses seats in the midterm elections. But Republicans have zero seats to give, literally.
Rude Awakening for Trump
Also see Rude Awakening for Trump, No Business as Usual Applies to Him Too
The budget fiasco of the past three days shows Trump does not have absolute control over the Republican party.
Finally, if you want to know what kind of dreamer deal to expect, please see my November 7, 2024 post The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party