Since President Biden stepped down from the election, the candidate names for have changed, but the issues haven’t. That’s important.
Of those 18-34, 42 percent cite inflation/economy as their number one issue. That contrasts with 34 percent in age group 65+.
Candidate Preference by Age Group
Pew Research shows Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points in 2020.
Things have changed profoundly.
The USAToday-Suffolk poll shows the plus 20 percentage-point edge for Biden for age group 18-34 in 2020 fell to an 11 percentage-point deficit.
Kennedy now has 12 percent of the vote.
The USAToday-Suffolk poll is stale due to Biden dropping out, but even if all the Kennedy supporters switched to Kamala Harris, she would only get back to even.
The problem for Democrats is that Harris might need a strong positive number to win.
USAToday Suffolk Candidate Preference by Race
In contrast to a 92% to 8% margin for Biden in 2020, the USAToday-Suffolk poll shows the margin is down to 63-16.
And more Hispanics favor Trump over Biden.
Again, that is a stale poll, but an 84 percentage-point gap with Blacks is down to 47 percentage points.
It’s the Economy!
Weakening economic reports, especially jobs and delinquencies, explain the polls.
Young adults and blacks are the groups most impacted by the slowdown.
Unemployment Rate by Age Group
For those aged 16-19, the unemployment rate in June was 12.4 percent, up from 9.3 percent in April of 2023.
For those aged 20-24, the unemployment rate in June was 7.7 percent, up from 5.3 percent in April of 2023.
Unemployment Rate by Race
The unemployment rate is low, but it’s the direction that matters.
From the Spring 2023 lows, the unemployment rate for Blacks is up 1.5 percentage point vs 0.7 percentage points for Whites and 1.2 percentage points for Hispanics.
Cost of Rent
BLS data also show the cost of rent rose at least 0.4 percent for 33 consecutive months starting September 2021 through May 2024.
That streak ended in June when rent rose 0.3 percent.
Housing Unaffordability
Those who rent have been hammered by rising home prices coupled with mortgage rates near 7 percent.
The National Association of Realtors reported on July 23, “The median existing-home sales price bounced 4.1% from June 2023 to $426,900 – the second straight month it reached an all-time high and the twelfth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.”
Economic Well-Being Has Peaked
The above chart is from the Federal Reserve Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households
Zoomers and younger Millennials are struggling mightily as the next set of charts show.
Transition into Serious 90+ Auto New York Fed Quarterly Report
The above is from the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for 2024 Q1.
Serious auto loan delinquencies are on the rise everywhere, especially age groups 18-39.
Maxed Out Credit Card Users
Of those who have maxed out their credit, about 33 percent are delinquent.
Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards
The preceding two charts are from the New York Fed report Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers
Generational Homeownership Rates
As of 2022, only 39 percent of those under the age of 35 own a home. In contrast, the homeownership rate is over 70 percent in every age group 45 and older.
Due to rising home prices and decreasing affordability, the percentage ownership of those under age 35 is likely lower than the 39 percent shown above.
Home Ownership Rates by Race
There is nearly a 20 percentage-point difference between Blacks and Whites in homeownership rates.
Generation Z Credit Stress
The above image is from the Federal Reserve Survey of Household Economics via the Wall Street Journal.
The Data Explains the Polls
- About 27 percent of renters have some unpaid bills.
- About 12 percent of renters have delayed water, gas, or electricity payments.
- It’s younger adults and blacks who rent.
There are no political polls on voting preference that show rent status, but there should be. Which way struggling renters ultimately break is likely to decide the election.
Challenge for Harris
I believe a recession has started as explained on July 7 and again on August 2.
For discussion, please see The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
The challenge for Kamala Harris is to regain share of young voters and blacks who are increasingly for Trump or Kennedy or may sit the election out disenchanted, while not losing voters to moderates leery about Progressive policies.
That will be very difficult given Harris’ choice for Vice President.
For discussion, please see How Progressive is Tim Walz, Kama Harris’ VP Running Mate?