The Musk Watch DOGE Tracker (MWDT) reveals Musk has overstated verified DOGE savings by at least $96.4 billion, 1,121 percent.
I keep telling people DOGE savings are wild exaggerations. We now have a way to track DOGE claims.
Please consider The Musk Watch DOGE Tracker that I shorten to MWDT.
Elon Musk claims that the U.S. DOGE Service (DOGE) — a small group of Musk associates embedded in virtually every department of the federal government — have already saved taxpayers over $100 billion. In an appearance on Fox Business this week, Musk claimed he was saving $4 billion per day and was on track to cut $1 trillion from the federal budget.
Most of these purported “savings,” however, are not backed up with any details or documentation. In other cases, DOGE has provided documentation, but the documents reveal that DOGE has grossly overstated the potential savings to taxpayers.
That is why, today, we are launching the Musk Watch DOGE Tracker. The Musk Watch DOGE Tracker allows anyone to easily cut through the spin about DOGE and see how much savings can be verified. It also allows the public to go deeper and see what is being cut and who is being impacted. It will be updated weekly.
Verifiable Canceled Funding ($8.6 billion)
This includes the amount of savings that can be verified based on the information provided by DOGE. Most Verifiable Canceled Funding comes from canceled contracts. But Musk Watch has determined the actual potential savings, rather than the inflated values provided by DOGE.
Here is how it works. For each contract, there are three key figures: the “Obligated Amount,” the “Current Award Amount,” and the “Potential Award Amount.” The Obligated Amount is the amount the agency has obligated itself to spend. DOGE calculates the savings by taking the “Potential Award Amount” and subtracting the “Obligated Amount.” The “Potential Award Amount” is the value of the contract if all options, renewals, extensions, and expansions of the contract are exercised.
“The ‘Current Award Amount’ is a better way of determining what the government has committed to a contract,” Jacob Leibenluft, the former Executive Associate Director of the Office of Management and Budget told Musk Watch. By using “Potential Award Amount” instead, Leibenluft explained, DOGE is taking credit for saving money that the government was not required to spend and might never have been spent under any administration.
Musk Watch calculates the savings by taking the “Current Award Amount,” and subtracting the “Obligated Amount.” This results in a significantly lower estimation of savings.
The Musk Watch DOGE Tracker also includes real estate savings in this category since DOGE does provide specific addresses, even though the real estate savings are also somewhat inflated. A Washington Post analysis found that many of the savings “were calculated by assuming that those leases would otherwise have continued for another five years” even though many were scheduled to expire within the next two years.
The total Verifiable Canceled Funding, as calculated by the Musk Watch DOGE Tracker, is currently $8.6 billion. This means the top line claim of savings by DOGE, $105 billion, overstates the verified savings by 92%.
Mish Note: 105 is an overstatement by 1,121 percent. If you prefer, the result is only 8.2 percent of the claim.
Other Caveats
Even the Verifiable Canceled Funding as determined by the Musk Watch DOGE Tracker may still overstate the real savings to taxpayers.
First, since there is a delay in federal contract databases, we have to assume that all the contracts that DOGE says it canceled are actually canceled. But more than 1000 contracts that have appeared on the DOGE.gov website at one point were subsequently removed. So some of the current contracts that DOGE says it has canceled may not actually be canceled.
Second, canceling a contract that is paid for by funds appropriated by Congress does not automatically decrease the budget. Savings claimed by DOGE for canceled contracts may be “illusory” because the agency is still “required to spend the money” appropriated by Congress for the same statutorily authorized purpose.
Illusory Savings
That last point is very important.
Judges have ruled, and correctly so, that USAID cannot be halted unilaterally.
I discussed that in Rubio Cancels 83 Percent of USAID Programs Following 6-Week Review
Really? No, not quite. Read the fine print. Then let’s discuss the possibilities.
Marco Rubio Full Statement on X
After a 6 week review we are officially cancelling 83% of the programs at USAID. The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States. In consultation with Congress, we intend for the remaining 18% of programs we are keeping (approximately 1000) to now be administered more effectively under the State Department. Thank you to DOGE and our hardworking staff who worked very long hours to achieve this overdue and historic reform.
Did you catch the key phrase? Here it is: “In consultation with Congress“.
Cutting 83 percent of the items (the above are major categories, not items), could cut anywhere from 1 percent to 99+ percent of the budget.
My guess is 5 to 10 percent. And there will be a battle in Congress over every item.
Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Pause on USAID Payouts
On March 5, I commented Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Pause on USAID Payouts
Here is a conversation with a constitutional law expert friend (CLEF) of mine regarding my post. He graduated top of Harvard Law Review and has argued many cases before the Supreme Court.
CLEF: Today’s win was procedural. I.e., the standards for injunctive relief were met and pending a final decision, payments can continue. One of the standards for an injunction is that the party seeking the injunction is likely to succeed on merit.
Me: I was aware that this was preliminary. But Trump did not even try to claim they can cancel all aid. That was the position of Trump and Musk in the beginning. If they cannot win on this point, how are they going to win on cancellation?
CLEF: If you can’t prevent the distribution of Congressionally approved funds, you certainly can’t shut down an agency that Congress has mandated, if that’s what you mean by “cancellation.”
Me: Yes, that’s exactly what I mean.
I wonder how many items DOGE has in the victory column that actually go out the door.
DOGE Isn’t Doing Anything
If you think logically, DOGE isn’t doing much of anything, no matter what number you assign. DOGE has not come up with a single idea that Rand Paul, me, numerous bloggers, and others have not already suggested.
And DOGE is going about things stupidly.
On February 17, I noted DOGE Makes Huge Mistake Firing Nuclear Workers, Now Seeks to Rehire Them
When you fire people without understanding what they even do, you make big mistakes.
On February 18, I noted DOGE is Careless in Operation and Reckless in Reporting
Thanks to the MWDT, we can evaluate reckless as 1,221 percent overstated, minimally.
Q: Will that stop massive exaggeration of Musk’s claims?
A: Of course not. Why would it?
Regardless of what Congress does, everyone should cheer Rubio going about this the correct way.
Now, we will get something done, legally, with no risk of court interference. We should have started here in the first place.
Meanwhile …
Don’t count broken eggs before the Senate and House agree to break them. And don’t chalk up Musk’s claims without understanding how exaggerated they are.