The St. Louis Fed, AKA Fred is abysmally late updating its data feed. I have too many charts to update manually, so here is a synopsis instead of my typical detailed report.
CPI Flat for May
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April
- Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
- More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month.
- The index for food increased 0.1 percent in May. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index was unchanged.
- The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, led by a 3.6-percent decrease in the gasoline index. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May, after rising 0.3 percent the preceding month.
- Indexes which increased in May include shelter, medical care, used cars and trucks, and education. The indexes for airline fares, new vehicles, communication, recreation, and apparel were among those that decreased over the month.
- The all items index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending May, a smaller increase than the 3.4- percent increase for the 12 months ending April.
- The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 2.1 percent over the last year.
Owner’s Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence
I expected a flat CPI, but not the way we got it.
Owners’ Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary residence were each up another 0.4 percent in May.
That marks the 33rd consecutive increase of at least 0.4 percent for both.
I expected a flat CPI this month with rent and OER pulling back a bit. Had they fallen, we would have had a negative CPI.
At some point this year, I believe rent will abate. If not, the Fed is going to have one heck of a time bringing down the year-over-year CPI currently 3.3 percent.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate was 3.4 percent as were many others. My forecast based on a combination of energy and shelter was 3.3 percent with an outside chance of 3.2 if both were good.
Multi-Family Housing Completions
Part of my reason for expecting improvement in the CPI was based on the idea that 2024 Will Have the Most Multi-Family Housing Completions in History
I may post some charts if the St. Louis Fed updates its data. I have too many to enter manually.
It’s silly to be at the mercy of a data feed from the Fed, but that is the spot I am in.
Apologies.