Gasoline prices fell 1 percent, airline fares fell 4 percent but shelter rose 0.3 percent.
Better than Expected
- CPI: Bloomberg Consensus 0.3% v Actual 0.2%
- Core CPI Excluding Food and Energy: Bloomberg Consensus 0.3% v Actual 0.2%
- CPI Year-Over-Year: Bloomberg Consensus 2.9% v Actual 2.8%
- Core CPI Year-Over-Year: Bloomberg Consensus 3.2% v Actual 3.1%
CPI Month-Over-Month Details
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in February, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase.
- The shelter increase was partially offset by a 4.0-percent decrease in the index for airline fares and a 1.0-percent decline in the index for gasoline.
- Despite the decrease in the gasoline index, the energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month as the indexes for electricity and natural gas increased.
- The index for food also increased in February, rising 0.2 percent as the index for food away from home increased 0.4 percent. The food at home index was unchanged over the month.
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent.
- Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares and new vehicles were among the few major indexes that decreased in February.
I don’t consider that a good mix with shelter up another 0.3 percent.
CPI Month-Over-Month Rent and OER
Rent has increased at least 0.3 percent all but one month since August of 2021. OER has gone up at least 0.3 percent every month since May of 2021.
Nobody pays OER. It is the rent homeowners would pay if they rented their own house instead of paying a mortgage or own the house free and clear.
However, over a third of the nation does rent and most of them pay well over a third of their income on rent. Many pay half their money on rent. After food and utilities, there is nothing left.
CPI Month-Over-Month Energy and Gasoline
Energy Month-Over-Month Details
- Energy: +0.2%
- Gasoline: -1.0%
- Electricity: +1.0%
- Natural Gas: 2.5%
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Year-Over-Year Details
- CPI: 2.8%
- OER: 4.4%
- Rent: 4.1%
- Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy): 3.1%
- Food and Beverage: 2.6%
- Medical Care Services: 3.0%
Year-Over-Year Energy
- Gasoline -3.1%
- Electricity: 2.5%
- Natural Gas: +6.0
- Energy: -.0.2
On the surface, this looks like an OK report. But falling gasoline and airfares represent economic weakening. Energy services are hot, and rent is stubbornly high.
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