The government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is about to collapse. Let’s discuss the long saga.
Syrian Government forces, Turkey, the US, Iran, ISIS remnants, Lebanon, Iran, Russia, and the Kurds are all involved with intertwined and conflicting goals.
Understanding the Mess
The New York Times has an excellent writeup of the parties involved. Here is a free link to its report How to Understand Syria’s Rapidly Changing Civil War
Rebel groups fighting to depose President Bashar al-Assad of Syria battled regime forces on the outskirts of the strategic city of Homs on Saturday as they pushed toward the capital, Damascus, according to the rebels and a war monitoring group.
Arab Spring and escalating into a bloody, multifaceted conflict involving domestic opposition groups, extremist factions and international powers including the United States, Iran and Russia. More than 500,000 Syrians have died, and millions more have fled their homes.
Who Is Fighting?
- Syrian Government: The Syrian government, led by Mr. al-Assad, has been central to the protracted and devastating civil war that began in 2011. Mr. al-Assad, who took power in 2000, is part of the family that has run Syria since a 1970 coup. They are Alawites, a minority sect that is an offshoot of Shiite Islam.
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, whose name means Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, began to form at the beginning of Syria’s civil war, when jihadists formed the Al Nusra Front to fight pro-Assad forces with hundreds of insurgent and suicide attacks. The group had early links to the Islamic State, and then to Al Qaeda. But by mid-2016, the Nusra Front tried to shed its extremist roots, banding together with several other factions to establish Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The United States and other Western countries still consider it a terrorist group.
- Kurdish forces: Forces from Syria’s Kurdish ethnic minority became the United States’ main local partner in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces. After the extremist group [ISIS] was largely defeated, the Kurdish-led forces consolidated control over towns in the northeast, expanding an autonomous region they had built there. But Kurdish fighters still had to contend with their longtime enemy, Turkey, which regards them as linked to a Kurdish separatist insurgency.
Foreign Powers
- Turkey: Since the beginning of the civil war, the Turkish military has launched several military interventions across the border into Syria, mostly against Syrian Kurdish-led forces. Turkey now effectively controls a zone along Syria’s northern border. Turkey also supports factions such as the Syrian National Army, a coalition of armed Syrian opposition groups. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey issued a qualified approval of the rebel advance. “The opposition’s march continues. Our wish is that this march in Syria continues without incident.”
- Russia: Throughout Syria’s civil war, Russia has been one of Mr. Assad’s most loyal foreign backers, sending Russian troops to support his forces and jets to bomb his enemies. It has maintained a strategic military presence in Syria with air and naval bases, which it uses to support military operations in the region.
- Iran and Hezbollah: Iran smuggles weapons to Hezbollah across Iraq and Syria. Iran and Hezbollah have repaid the favor by sending thousands of militants to fight on Mr. al-Assad’s side during the civil war.
- Israel: Israel’s military activities in Syria have been mostly focused on airstrikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets, especially senior military personnel, weapons production facilities and the transport corridor that Iran uses to send weapons to Hezbollah.
- United States: The U.S. role in the Syrian civil war has shifted several times. The Obama administration initially supported opposition groups in their uprising against the government, providing weapons and training, with limited effect.
Tangled Web
Please read that paragraph on the United States again. The US was giving weapons to Syria opposition groups. Many if not most of those weapons eventually ended up in the hands of ISIS.
The US was also giving weapons to the Kurds who were helping to fight ISIS.
Meanwhile, Turkey, our alleged ally, was fighting the Kurds, our one genuine ally.
The US has troops stationed in Syria, not welcome by the Syrian government or by Turkey because we are helping the Kurds [Adding: and we want what little oil Syria has].
US Acts of War
Placing troops in foreign countries is an act of war.
It should be up to Congress to declare war, but Congress is too weak to challenge the President. This holds true whether there is a Democrat or a Republican as president.
Both Democrats and Republicans support war, so they let the president conduct war without having to vote on it.
That way, the hypocrites can support war without having to officially declare war.
A More Moderate ISIS?
For many countries, Mr. al-Assad offered a semblance of control, while a rebel takeover threatened more uncertainty in a region already in upheaval. Some Arab states last year began to normalize diplomatic relations with the Assad regime after shunning his government for years.
Publicly, American officials have been cautious about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. But inside the U.S. government, some officials believe the group’s turn toward pragmatism is genuine, and that its leaders know they cannot realize aspirations to join or lead the Syrian government if the group is seen as a jihadist organization.
Assad Government Might Fall Soon
CNN Reports Syrian Rebels Edge Closer to Damascus as US Officials say Assad Regime Could Fall Soon
Residents in Irbin, a northwest suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus, have been seen celebrating the progress of anti-regime rebel fighters as they move closer to the city center.
In a video geolocated by CNN, residents were observed flooding the streets, lighting fireworks and honking car horns.
Irbin is just 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the center of Damascus.
Earlier, the southern rebels — who launched their offensive just a day ago — said they had reached “the gates” of the capital.
The US supported the overthrow of Assad for over 10 years but not by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. That’s a conflicted policy that never made any sense from any angle.
Also, the US supports the Kurds but ignores Turkey’s attacks on them. Thus, multiple parties are simultaneously our friends and enemies.
As long as the fighting continues, we can supply the region with weapons. Was that the real goal all along?
Regardless, neither Russia nor Iran is willing or able to further assist Assad. So, the end of Assad is at hand. Time will tell what it means.
The biggest irony is that Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, not any actions by the US, is the force behind what happens next.