Today, the BEA revised income lower for the last two months. More negative revisions to income are on the way.
Income Revisions
The BEA revised both current dollar and chained dollar income lower for May and June.
Chained dollars are inflation adjusted. The revisions did not impact the chained dollar percentages.
Spending Revisions
The BEA revised both current dollar and chained dollar spending higher for May and June.
The revisions boosted inflation-adjusted spending for May and June.
Annual BEA GDP and GDI Revisions
The BEA will report Annual Updates to the National, Industry, and State and Local Economic Accounts on September 26, 2024.
The update of the NEAs will cover the first quarter of 2019 through the first quarter of 2024 and will result in revisions to gross domestic product (GDP), GDP by industry, gross domestic income, and related components. The reference year for index numbers and chained-dollar estimates will remain 2017.
A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
On August 22, I listed A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
Yesterday morning, I had difficulty finding the BLS job revisions. So did everyone else. Eventually the BLS posted -818,000 but my unadjusted calc of -915,000 is accurate too.
The 818,000 number is based on QCEW data. It’s a significant number of jobs and income. But ….
In accordance with usual practice [but not in the usual way], the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2025 with the publication of the January 2025 Employment Situation news release.
Revisions When? How?
- The existing employment series [monthly reports] are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate.
- The BLS final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2025 with the publication of the January 2025 Employment Situation news release.
A Word About Bullsheet
In February of 2025, the BLS, in accordance with usual practice, will make revisions.
These revisions will not be monthly, or even quarterly.
It will be one big bang poof here you go update, with wild swings in the data. This will make all historical charts useless.
It is very difficult keeping track of all these revisions to jobs and income and what they include.
Don’t worry, there is nothing unusual about this. It happens every year.
But February of 2025 will be special because we will get 500 percent of the usual bullsheet, long after hardly anyone cares about how big the bullsheet was, and in a way that makes it difficult if not impossible to properly analyze for the few who do care.
August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions
August 21: BLS Revises Jobs Down by 818,000 the Most Ever, About 68,000 Per Month
Regarding the -818,000 jobs revision, I expected some of that to hit first quarter revised estimates but that will not happen until next month per the BEA. “New QCEW data for the first quarter of 2024 will be incorporated in next month’s release along with the 2024 Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts.”
Thus the BEA will incorporate the QCEW revisions to income and wages faster than the BLS.
Are you thoroughly confused yet?
This reminds me of the poem Eletelephony
Once there was an elephant,
Who tried to use the telephant—
No! No! I mean an elephone
Who tried to use the telephone—
(Dear me! I am not certain quite
That even now I’ve got it right.)
I learned that poem in second grade and never forgot it. The last line is very appropriate to this post.
GDI is floundering at 1.3 percent (and soon to be revised lower) vs an alleged 3.0 percent for GDP.
The Gap Between Real GDP and GDI Increases to New Record $616 Billion
Meanwhile, as a result of the current revisions, please note The Gap Between Real GDP and GDI Increases to New Record $616 Billion
The BEA revised GDP from 2.8% to 3.0%. GDI is much more believable at 1.3% with negative revisions coming.