Are you cheering? Many are?
Technical Picture
Starting with the technical picture, the election gap is filled.
Gaps up occur when a stock opens above the high of the preceding day and stay there. Gaps down occur when a stock opens below the low of the preceding day and stay there.
There are two open gaps on Tesla. One of them at $140, from April, and I fully expect that one to fill.
The good news with gaps is there are none on the weekly or monthly charts, at least that I easily see.
Weekly support levels are are at $212, $138 (the gap), and $100.
Given the severity of this Tesla downturn, perhaps there is a technical bounce at $212. But there’s likely to be a stronger and longer-lasting bounce near $138.
Worst Day Since 2020
Today, the Wall Street Journal reports Tesla Stock Falls 15% in Worst Day Since 2020
UBS on Monday lowered its first-quarter delivery forecast for the electric-vehicle maker, noting low delivery times for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in key markets. Lukewarm deliveries in Europe have recently been driven by Germany, France, Norway and Spain, the bank noted, while performance in the U.K. has been stronger.
The analysts also flagged that Chinese manufacturer BYD’s advanced driver-assistance systems “is damaging for TSLA in China and makes their product less competitive.”
Other analysts remain bullish. Last week, Wedbush analysts wrote that while Musk’s involvement in the administration has triggered brand concerns, the firm believes that under 5% of Tesla sales across the world are at risk due to those concerns. “Importantly,” they added, “we expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025 and some of these distraction issues will fade.”
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said he believes the company is at the beginning of one of the biggest phases of innovation in its history.
“For the last fifteen years, many times, the bears and the skeptics thought it was the end of Tesla,” Ives said. “The narrative that the Musk brand is going to deteriorate the growth trajectory of Tesla is misguided.”
Not the End of Tesla
No, this won’t be the end of Tesla. It will survive. But this may easily be the end of absurd Tesla valuations.
Wedbush analysts said “We expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025.”
Yes, but how? Eventually Trump will get rid of Musk.
Hoot of the Day
The more ridiculous comment is from Ives. “The narrative that the Musk brand is going to deteriorate the growth trajectory of Tesla is misguided.”
Musk and Trump have both already deteriorated the growth trajectory of Tesla.
Sales of Teslas in China will trend towards zero. Trump-sponsored trade wars with China will see to that sooner or later. Put me down for the much sooner bucket.
US Tesla Sales Collapse
Reuters reports Tesla Sales in Germany Slump in February
- Germany Down 76%
- Netherlands Down 24%
- Sweden Down 42%
- Norway and Denmark Down 48%
- France Down 45%
- Italy Down 55%
Think about where those numbers headed when Trump blasts the EU with tariffs and the EU responds in the obvious manner.
What About the US?
Good question. Thanks for asking.
I will answer with a question: What percentage of the county is totally pissed off at Musk and/or Trump?
Also, I am pleased to report Trump’s White House announcement on Unleashing American Energy.
(e) to eliminate the “electric vehicle (EV) mandate” and promote true consumer choice, which is essential for economic growth and innovation, by removing regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access; by ensuring a level regulatory playing field for consumer choice in vehicles; by terminating, where appropriate, state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles; and by considering the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs over other technologies and effectively mandate their purchase by individuals, private businesses, and government entities alike by rendering other types of vehicles unaffordable;
The saving grace for Musk, for now, is that Trump cannot get rid of EV tax credits by himself.
That would take an act of Congress. But Trump wants to do that.
Curiously, Musk supported such a move. But that was on grounds of a mandated move towards EVs he thought he would win.
Now what? Here, an executive order will be sufficient to slow EV sales. It won’t take an act of Congress.
There is a place for EVs. But at a much slower pace and with much more competition, including hybrids.
What is Tesla worth without EV tax credits, emission credits, dramatically slower sales in the EU and US, increased competition, and headed for zero sales in China?
A Conversation on My Blog Today
“Your grievance against Mr. Musk appears to be that he is a bull in a China shop.”
I actually think Musk is a genius. Tesla and SpaceX are proof enough to me.
But look where bull in a China shop has gone: Nowhere, as the courts have shown. Rubio will do things the correct way, or they won’t get done.
Musk’s role is only advisory. He has overstepped those bounds many times and a couple of them have blown up.
Expect to hear this: “You’re Fired”.
Musk’s Glee
It’s the glee in Musk’s firings that’s really galling. And he can’t even get it right.
On February 17, I commented DOGE Makes Huge Mistake Firing Nuclear Workers, Now Seeks to Rehire Them
When you fire people without understanding what they even do, you make big mistakes.
Rubio Cancels 83 Percent of USAID Programs Following 6-Week Review
Earlier today, I commented Rubio Cancels 83 Percent of USAID Programs Following 6-Week Review
Really? No, not quite. Read the fine print. Then let’s discuss the possibilities.
Following numerous court smackdowns, the Trump administration is finally going about this the right way.
In an Explosive White House Meeting, Cabinet Officials Clash With Elon Musk
On March 8, I commented In an Explosive White House Meeting, Cabinet Officials Clash With Elon Musk
One clueless person discounted the story based on the source: The New York Times.
Spare me the ad hominem attacks. When people have no other way, they try to discredit the source. The story is quite believable, and reported elsewhere. It’s the denials that aren’t believable.
Coming sooner or later. “You’re Fired”. When it happens, about 75 percent of the nation will have had enough of Musk.
Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”
Finally, please consider Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”
My sarcastic opening line was “Don’t worry, it’s just a little more pain and inflation disturbance before tariff greatness begins.”
There won’t be any tariff greatness.
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