Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Four Months
Tyler Mitchell – The ADP Employment Report shows the economy added 99,000 jobs in August. That is a considerable slowdown.…
Spotlight on US Treasuries, Where Are Long-Term Bond Yields Headed?
My guess is bond yields are heading much lower between now and September 11. 30-Year US Treasury Long…
Nearing the Point Where Unemployment Is Greater Than Job Openings
The labor market softens again. Job openings drop and quits are below the pre-Covid level. Job Openings and…
Recapping GDPNow Third-Quarter Nowcast Changes, What’s Going on and Why
My last update was on August 17. The Nowcast has gone nowhere in an interesting way. GDPNow data…
Odds of a Half-Point Interest Rate Cut by the Fed Rise to 44 Percent
I am sticking with my call of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed this month. The…
Fed Beige Book Shows Flat or Declining Economy in 9 of 12 Fed Districts
The economy is cooling must faster than most recognize. The Fed’s Beige Book provides more evidence. The Beige…
Far Right to Win First German State Election Since WWII
Exit Polls show AfD will easily win Thuringia. Saxony is close. AfD is expected to win the state…
D.C. Court Cancels Three Approved LNG Projects Over “Environmental Justice”
Kamala can hide behind her newfound support (lie) for fracking as long as she has “environment justice” and…
In Honor of Labor Day, Let’s Review BLS Job Revisions
I have some new charts today on job revisions. Let’s discuss. Data from the BLS via the Philadelphia…
Protests and Strikes in Israel, Outrage Over Netanyahu’s Policy Builds
There was already huge support in Israel for a hostage deal. In the wake of prisoner executions by…