The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?
Tyler Mitchell Many eyes are on the McKelvey recession indicator. Too many? That would probably be the case if everyone…
If the Fed Cuts Interest Rates a Half-Point, Should Trump Complain, Rejoice, Neither or Both?
Think carefully. I will grade your answer. The current odds suggest only a 30 percent chance the Fed…
Year-Over-Year Rent Inflation Is About to Fall Sharply
The Philadelphia Fed All Tenant Regressed Rent index suggests rapid deceleration in rent increases, perhaps even declining. Data…
Fed Beige Book Conditions Are Worse Now Than the Start of the Great Recession
Let’s compare current Beige Book conditions to those at the beginning of the Great Recession. Beige Book January…
BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months
Let’s recap negative job revisions and also discuss a reader comment “This was not a poor nonfarm payroll…
Is Trump Still Ahead If You Factor Out Nate Silver’s Bounce Adjustment?
Nate Sliver applied convention bounce adjustments to Trump and Harris, both negative. What happens if the Harris adjustment…
Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions
Other than a small 0.1 percent improvement in the unemployment rate, this was a very poor jobs report…
Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal in August
A modified McKelvey recession indicator with no false positives or false negatives since 1953 suggests we are in…
Trump Surges to a 61.5 Percent Win Probability. Is That High or Low?
Think about your answer and why. Here few snips from the latest Nate Silver Bulletin. I am a…
ISM Services Index Up Slightly But Employment Weakens to Nearly Flat
The ISM services index was essentially unchanged but production and employment weakened with new orders rising. ISM chart…