Former ECB President Mario Draghi Proposes a “Vice President for Simplification”
Tyler Mitchell Draghi’s proposal for more bureaucracy to simplify bureaucracy is my hoot of the day. The Future of European…
NFIB “Mood on Main Street Darkens” Small Business Optimism Dips
The July jump in small business optimism momentum lasted precisely one month. Small Business Optimism Dips in August…
Germany Suspends Schengen, Immigration Repercussion Across the Entire EU
For the first time in EU history, Germany is at the forefront of immigration suspension. Other EU countries…
Who Won the Debate? Ask Me in a Week to 10 Days
I am hearing mostly rah-rahs for Harris. And the instant polls show Harris was perceived as the winner.…
GDPNow Rates the Jobs Report as Positive, That Was Not My Guess
The GDPNow Nowcast moved higher today on the “strength” (or lack thereof) of last Friday’s jobs report. Earlier…
47 Percent of All Voters Think Harris Is Too Progressive
The latest New York Times / Siena College poll is a doozie. It has Trump in the lead.…
The Consensus CPI on Wednesday Is 0.2 Percent, High, Low, or Spot On?
The Bloomberg consensus estimate is 0.2 percent. CPINow from the Cleveland Fed is 0.18 percent. Chart Notes ATRR…
The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?
Many eyes are on the McKelvey recession indicator. Too many? That would probably be the case if everyone…
If the Fed Cuts Interest Rates a Half-Point, Should Trump Complain, Rejoice, Neither or Both?
Think carefully. I will grade your answer. The current odds suggest only a 30 percent chance the Fed…
Year-Over-Year Rent Inflation Is About to Fall Sharply
The Philadelphia Fed All Tenant Regressed Rent index suggests rapid deceleration in rent increases, perhaps even declining. Data…