Blacks constitute only 14 percent of the voting age population, but the swings toward Trump are so huge they could decide the election.
According to a Wall Street Journal Swing State Poll, blacks, especially black males are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.
While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. There isn’t comparable WSJ swing-state polling from 2020, but Trump received votes from 12% of Black men nationwide that year, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate.
That’s an 18 percentage point swing, minimum, for black males, if the national results and the swing state voting is similar.
By confirmed, I mean those who said they intended to vote for Trump.
The gap is even larger if we factor in undecided voters. Biden is down by a massive 30 percentage points vs 2020. I suspect most in that group will end up voting for Biden, but a fair number will vote for RFK, not vote at all, or vote for Trump.
While Black women are less likely than Black men to support Trump, some are exploring other options, including third parties and potentially staying home.
In a sign that Biden hasn’t yet won commitments from many of these voters, some 42% of Black women in the survey fell into a group that the Journal pollsters say are up for grabs in the election, or still persuadable in their vote choice. These voters say they have not yet decided on a candidate, might vote for an independent or third-party option or are likely—but not certain—to back one of the major-party candidates.
While Latino women and Black men in the survey also signaled in large numbers that they remain persuadable in their vote choice, the share of Black women is noteworthy, given that they are among the most loyal Democratic groups in the electorate.
Among women, Trump has picked up five percentage points while Biden is potentially down 16 percentage points.
Powerful Message
A representative for the Trump campaign said: “Our coalition message to Black and Hispanic communities this election is simple: If you want strong borders, safe neighborhoods, rising wages, quality jobs, school choice and the return of the strongest economy in over 60 years, then vote for Donald J. Trump.”
Remove the words Black and Hispanic and it’s a strong message to everyone.
Black Eligible Voter Population
Turnout by Race
Election Math
In the last election, voting turnout from Blacks was 63 percent. That would be 0.63 * 34.4 million or 21.67 million total votes.
In the last election about 9 percent of them nationally voted for Trump (12 percent men and 6 percent women averaged to 9 percent), thus 91 percent for Biden. That’s roughly 19.72 million votes for Biden and 1.95 million for Trump, a net of +17.77 million to Biden.
Now we are looking at about 20 percent going to Trump.
That’s 17.34 million votes to Biden and 4.33 million to Trump for a net of 13.01 million votes to Biden.
Net-to-net, my current projection is a net loss of 4.76 million blacks vs 2020 for Biden.
This was an interesting mental exercise, but it is already reflected in the swing state polls (or should be if the poll is properly weighted) so don’t double count!
What Will Decide the Election?
New Geography claims EVs will decide the election. That’s a reason, but it’s well down my list. What about yours?
On April 7, I asked If Biden Loses the Election, What Will Be the Top Reason?
No poll to date has gotten to the specific point that is most likely to cost Biden the election.
It’s the economy, but specifically housing [rent and housing affordability].
The CPI Rose Sharply in March
The CPI rose 0.4 percent in March. Rent is up another 0.4 percent in March with gasoline up 1.7 percent. Together, the pair was about half of the total rise.
On April 10, I noted The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in March. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 31 consecutive months!
Q: Who is most impacted by sharply rising rent?
A: Blacks and younger voters
Here’s the deal according to the National Association of Realtors.
While the U.S. homeownership rate increased to 65.5% in 2021, the rate among Black Americans lags significantly (44%), has only increased 0.4% in the last 10 years and is nearly 29 percentage points less than White Americans (72.7%), representing the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
If the Fed Cuts Rates Before the Election, Does Biden or Trump Benefit More?
I also discuss home ownership in my Q&A If the Fed Cuts Rates Before the Election, Does Biden or Trump Benefit More?
Meanwhile, please note that on that hot CPI report 30-year mortgage rates shot up to 7.37 percent.
Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?
Finally, please consider my question Fact Check: Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?
Renters, especially blacks and young voters with few assets are likely to say no.
This fully explains all of the polls. Yet Biden and all the economists still cannot figure out why so many people are miserable.
My base case is Trump will win the election as huge percentages of Blacks and young voters drop support for Biden.
Tyler Mitchell