Space Force projects ULA to outpace SpaceX in 2025 national security missions

ORLANDO, Fla. — The U.S. Space Force is projecting 11 national security launches aboard United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) Vulcan rocket in 2025, contingent on the rocket receiving final certification, officials said Jan. 28.The forecast also includes seven missions on SpaceX’s Falcon rockets, Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, head of the Space Force’s Assured Access to Space office, told reporters at the Space Mobility Conference.This ambitious schedule comes as the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program aims to make up for lost time, having completed only five missions in 2024.Vulcan, which debuted last year after prolonged schedule setbacks, is a cornerstone of the NSSL Phase 2 program, under which ULA was selected in 2020 as the primary launch provider for national security missions through 2027. However, the rocket remains under review, with certification expected in late February following its second demonstration flight in October 2024.  While ULA aims to ramp up Vulcan flights for military missions, SpaceX has maintained its dominance in the commercial launch market and even absorbed additional national security launches in 2024 that were originally slated for Vulcan, highlighting the Space Force’s growing reliance on SpaceX’s proven Falcon rockets to maintain critical military space access. Col. Jim Horne, who oversees launch execution for the Space Force, said Vulcan’s second test flight was deemed successful despite an anomaly with one of its solid rocket boosters. The issue is being investigated by a joint ULA-Space Force team but is not expected to derail certification.  Horne said there’s no one-size-fits-all path to certification. “Certification isn’t just about two flights,” he explained. “It’s a comprehensive evaluation of engineering, manufacturing, quality control, and sustainment processes.” He added that Vulcan’s first NSSL mission could occur as early as this spring.  Blue Origin joins the raceMeanwhile, Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket completed its inaugural flight on Jan. 16, reaching its intended orbit and marking a milestone in its pursuit of NSSL certification. Although the rocket’s first stage was not recovered as planned, Panzenhagen emphasized that booster recovery is not a criterion for NSSL eligibility.  “For our national security space launch missions, the primary measure of success is delivering the payload to its destination,” she said.  The flight positions New Glenn to compete for Lane 1 of the NSSL Phase 3 program, which covers less complex missions. A second successful flight will likely be required for the rocket to qualify for the more demanding Lane 2 missions.  Blue Origin’s path to certification remains proprietary, with the company given the option to balance demonstration launches and detailed data reviews to meet Space Force requirements. ULA publicly disclosed that its plan to certify Vulcan would require two successful flights.