United States President Donald Trump’s newly announced global tariffs are set to impact a world economy that has barely recovered from the post-pandemic inflation surge and is weighed down by record debt and unnerved by geopolitical strife.
The effects are far-reaching, with a 10 per cent baseline US tariff on imported goods from all countries. Many countries have also been hit with what Trump describes as “reciprocal” tariffs, for countries his administration says have high trade deficits on US imports.
Those include a 34 per cent tariff on China (in addition to a 20 per cent tariff it already faces) and a 20 per cent tariff on goods from the European Union.
A 25 per cent tariff on cars and parts had been confirmed earlier. Australia has been hit with the baseline 10 per cent tariff.
Donald Trump outlined his tariff plans on what he has called ‘Liberation Day’. Source: AAP / Kent Nishimura / POOL / EPA
To get an example of how far-reaching these tariffs are, they include the Heard and McDonald Islands — an Australian external territory of mostly barren Antarctic islands, that is not populated by people, and can only be reached from Australia by a two-week sea journey.
Norfolk Island, a tiny Australian territory in the South Pacific Ocean, was also singled out with a 29 per cent tariff.
A spokesperson for Norfolk Island has since and would not be subject to the 29 per cent tariff, only the 10 per cent Australia will be subject to.
When will the tariffs come into effect?
The 10 per cent baseline tariffs will take effect on Saturday, from 12.01am local time — just after 3pm AEDT.
The individualised “reciprocal” tariffs on specific countries come into effect a few days later on Wednesday 9 April — 12.01am local time, 2.01pm AEST.
Were any countries not included in the announcement?
Canada and Mexico, the US’ two largest trading partners, were not included in Thursday’s announcement.
Both countries already face a 25 per cent tariff for allegedly not doing enough to curb migration and fentanyl trafficking.
Goods from Mexico and Canada that meet the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement requirements will largely remain tariff-free.
“For Canada and Mexico, the existing fentanyl/migration … orders remain in effect, and are unaffected by this order,” the White House fact sheet said.
Despite running a trade surplus of US$2.5 billion ($3.95 billion) with the US, Russia was not included in the tariff list.
Some American news outlets have reported that this is because Russia — along with Cuba, Belarus and North Korea, all of which were also excluded from the list — already faces “extremely high tariffs”, according to a White House spokesperson.
What could the global impact of tariffs be?
Depending on how Trump and leaders of other nations proceed, the tariffs could also be a turning point for a globalised system which until now had taken for granted the strength and reliability of the US, its largest component.
“Trump’s tariffs carry the risk of destroying the global free trade order the United States itself has spear-headed since the Second World War,” said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at the Japan-based Nomura Research Institute.
But in the coming months, it will be the price-hiking — and therefore demand-dampening — effects of new levies applied to thousands of goods bought and sold by consumers and businesses across the planet that will prevail.
“I see it as a drift of the US and global economy towards worse performance, more uncertainty, and possibly heading towards something we could call a global recession,” said Antonio Fatas, macroeconomist at the INSEAD business school in France.
“We are moving into a world which is worse for everyone because it is more inefficient,” said Fatas, who has acted as a consultant for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Trump said the tariffs would return strategically vital manufacturing capabilities to the United States.
Under the new global levies imposed by Trump, the US tariff rate on all imports jumped to 22 per cent — a rate last seen around 1910 — from just 2.5 per cent in 2024, said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings.
“This is a game changer, not only for the US economy but for the global economy,” Sonola said.
“Many countries will likely end up in a recession.”
The impact on national economies is set to diverge widely, given the spectrum of tariffs ranging from 10 per cent for Britain to 49 per cent for Cambodia.
If the result is a wider trade war, that would have even larger repercussions for producers like China, which would be left hunting for new markets in the face of wilting consumer demand around the world.
And if the tariffs push the US itself towards recession, that will weigh heavily on developing countries whose fortunes are closely tied to those of the world’s largest economy.
“What happens in the United States doesn’t stay in the United States,” said Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley.
“The economy is too big and too connected to the rest of the world via trade and capital flows for the rest of the world to be unaffected.”
An ‘inverted world’?
The knock-on effects for policymakers in central banks and governments are also potentially significant.
An unravelling of the supply chains which for years kept a lid on prices for consumers could lead to a world in which inflation tends to run “hotter” than the 2 per cent which central bankers currently agree is a manageable target to aim for.
That would complicate decisions for the Bank of Japan, which may face pressure to combat too-high inflation with more interest rate hikes just as its major counterparts eye cuts, and as its export-reliant economy takes a hit from US duties.
Car exporters Japan, hit with a 24 per cent tariff rate, and South Korea, which had a 25 per cent rate imposed on it, have signalled plans to take emergency measures to support businesses hit by the higher US levies.
Economies with weaker output growth would leave governments struggling even more to pay down the world’s record US$318 trillion ($505 trillion) debt load and find money for budget priorities ranging from defence spending to climate action and welfare.
And what if the tariffs do not bring about Trump’s oft-stated goal of encouraging business to invest in domestic US manufacturing, given the domestic labour shortages already facing a country with close to full employment?
Some see him seeking other ways to remove the US global trade deficit that riles him so much — for example, by demanding that others join in a re-balancing of foreign exchange rates to the advantage of US exporters.
“We are going to continue to see him putting out there potentially more risky ways of dealing with the continuous strength of the dollar,” said Freya Beamish, chief economist at investment strategy firm TS Lombard.
Such moves could jeopardise the privileged position of the dollar as the world reserve currency of choice — an outcome few predict, if only because there are, for now, no real alternatives to the dollar.
Nonetheless, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said during an event in Ireland overnight that Europe needed to act now and accelerate economic reforms to compete in what she called an “inverted world”.
“Everyone benefited from a hegemon, the United States, that was committed to a multilateral, rules-based order,” she said of the post-Cold War era of low inflation and growing trade in an open global economy.
“Today we must contend with closure, fragmentation and uncertainty.”
The full tariff list: Who has been targeted and by how much?
This list includes both the tariffs announced by Trump on Thursday, along with the amount the US claims it’s charged in tariffs by that country.
- China: 34 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 67 per cent)
- European Union: 20 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 39 per cent)
- Vietnam: 46 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 90 per cent)
- Taiwan: 32 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 64 per cent)
- Japan: 24 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 46 per cent)
- India: 26 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 52 per cent)
- South Korea: 25 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 50 per cent)
- Thailand: 36 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 72 per cent)
- Switzerland: 31 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 61 per cent)
- Indonesia: 32 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 64 per cent)
- Malaysia: 24 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 47 per cent)
- Cambodia: 49 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 97 per cent)
- United Kingdom: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- South Africa: 30 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 60 per cent)
- Brazil: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Bangladesh: 37 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 74 per cent)
- Singapore: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Israel: 17 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 33 per cent)
- Philippines: 17 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 34 per cent)
- Chile: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Australia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Pakistan: 29 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 58 per cent)
- Türkiye: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Sri Lanka: 44 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 88 per cent)
- Colombia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Peru: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Nicaragua: 18 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 36 per cent)
- Norway: 15 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 30 per cent)
- Costa Rica: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 17 per cent)
- Jordan: 20 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 40 per cent)
- Dominican Republic: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- United Arab Emirates: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- New Zealand: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 20 per cent)
- Argentina: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Ecuador: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 12 per cent)
- Guatemala: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Honduras: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Madagascar: 47 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 93 per cent)
- Myanmar: 44 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 88 per cent)
- Tunisia: 28 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 55 per cent)
- Kazakhstan: 27 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 54 per cent)
- Serbia: 37 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 74 per cent)
- Egypt: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Saudi Arabia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- El Salvador: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Côte d’Ivoire: 21 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 41 per cent)
- Laos: 48 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 95 per cent)
- Botswana: 37 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 74 per cent)
- Trinidad and Tobago: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 12 per cent)
- Morocco: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Algeria: 30 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 59 per cent)
- Oman: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Uruguay: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Bahamas: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Lesotho: 50 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 99 per cent)
- Ukraine: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Bahrain: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Qatar: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Mauritius: 40 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 80 per cent)
- Fiji: 32 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 63 per cent)
- Iceland: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Kenya: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Liechtenstein: 37 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 73 per cent)
- Guyana: 38 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 76 per cent)
- Haiti: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: 35 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 70 per cent)
- Nigeria: 14 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 27 per cent)
- Namibia: 21 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 42 per cent)
- Brunei: 24 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 47 per cent)
- Bolivia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 20 per cent)
- Panama: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Venezuela: 15 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 29 per cent)
- North Macedonia: 33 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 65 per cent)
- Ethiopia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Ghana: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 17 per cent)
- Moldova: 31 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 61 per cent)
- Angola: 32 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 63 per cent)
- Democratic Republic of the Congo: 11 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 22 per cent)
- Jamaica: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Mozambique: 16 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 31 per cent)
- Paraguay: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Zambia: 17 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 33 per cent)
- Lebanon: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Tanzania: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Iraq: 39 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 78 per cent)
- Georgia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Senegal: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Azerbaijan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Cameroon: 11 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 22 per cent)
- Uganda: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 20 per cent)
- Albania: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Armenia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Nepal: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Sint Maarten: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Falkland Islands: 41 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 82 per cent)
- Gabon: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Kuwait: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Togo: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Suriname: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent) Belize: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Papua New Guinea: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 15 per cent)
- Malawi: 17 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 34 per cent)
- Liberia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- British Virgin Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Afghanistan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 49 per cent)
- Zimbabwe: 18 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 35 per cent)
- Benin: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Barbados: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Monaco: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Syria: 41 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 81 per cent)
- Uzbekistan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Republic of the Congo: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Djibouti: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- French Polynesia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Cayman Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Kosovo: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Curaçao: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Vanuatu: 22 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 44 per cent)
- Rwanda: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Sierra Leone: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Mongolia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- San Marino: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Antigua and Barbuda: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Bermuda: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Eswatini: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Marshall Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Saint Pierre and Miquelon: 50 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 99 per cent)
- Saint Kitts and Nevis: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Turkmenistan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Grenada: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Sudan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Turks and Caicos Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Aruba: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Montenegro: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Saint Helena: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 15 per cent)
- Kyrgyzstan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Yemen: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Niger: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Saint Lucia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Nauru: 30 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 59 per cent)
- Equatorial Guinea: 13 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 25 per cent)
- Iran: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Libya: 31 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 61 per cent)
- Samoa: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Guinea: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Timor-Leste: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Montserrat: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Chad: 13 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 26 per cent)
- Mali: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Maldives: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Tajikistan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Cabo Verde: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Burundi: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Guadeloupe: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Bhutan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Martinique: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Tonga: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Mauritania: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Dominica: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Micronesia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Gambia: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- French Guiana: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Christmas Island: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Andorra: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Central African Republic: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Solomon Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Mayotte: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Anguilla: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Cocos (Keeling) Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Eritrea: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Cook Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- South Sudan: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Comoros: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Kiribati: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- São Tomé and Príncipe: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Norfolk Island: 29 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 58 per cent)
- Gibraltar: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Tuyalu: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- British Indian Ocean Territory: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Tokelau: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Guinea-Bissau: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Svalbard and Jan Mayen: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Heard and McDonald Islands: 10 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 10 per cent)
- Réunion: 37 per cent (claimed tariff charged to US is 73 per cent)
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