Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking decisive steps to address growing challenges as he seeks to regain control over his struggling military campaign in Ukraine.
On May 2, Putin met with Alexei Dyumin, the governor of Russia‘s Tula Oblast, and a known associate of the Wagner Group, at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence in Moscow Oblast.
The meeting has raised questions about the stability of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s position, signalling Putin’s increasing desperation in the face of unmet military goals.
Dyumin, who was closely associated with Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin during the tumultuous events of 2022 and 2023, presented Putin with a report outlining Tula Oblast’s contributions to Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
He discussed key issues such as housing for Russian soldiers, strengthening Russia‘s defence industrial base, and improving the regional medical system.
The timing of the meeting is crucial. It occurred just days after the high-profile arrest of Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, a close ally of Shoigu, and ahead of the anticipated presidential inauguration on May 7. Analysts believe that Putin’s publicised meeting with Dyumin could be a clear signal of his displeasure with Shoigu’s Ministry of Defence for failing to achieve the Kremlin’s military objectives.
Russian insiders suggest that Dyumin could be considered for a new role related to Russia‘s defence industrial base, indicating a potential shift in power within the Russian defence establishment. The meeting’s timing has sparked speculation that Putin might be using it to exert pressure on Shoigu, leveraging Dyumin’s re-emergence as a counterbalance against the struggling defence minister.
Shoigu’s recent statement about the need for more advanced weaponry to “maintain the required pace of the offensive” has been interpreted by some as an indirect criticism of other Russian officials, suggesting rising tensions within the Kremlin. Additionally, the recent arrest of Ivanov, who had a close relationship with Shoigu, alongside Dyumin’s reappearance, has fuelled rumours of a possible shake-up in the Russian government.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Putin has a history of rotating officials and military commanders to maintain control over competing factions. This latest development underscores the turbulent state of Russian politics as Putin scrambles to stabilise his government while grappling with the ongoing challenges of the war in Ukraine.
With the looming presidential inauguration and a likely government reshuffle, the Kremlin appears to be on the brink of significant changes as Putin navigates the complex dynamics within his administration.
The meeting with Dyumin suggests that Putin may be willing to use drastic measures to regain control, reinforcing the impression that Russia is at a critical juncture in its efforts to overcome a major roadblock in its campaign against Ukraine.