Russian equipment losses in Ukraine have reached such a critical point that replacing them poses a significant challenge for Moscow, according to assessments by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Wednesday.
Satellite imagery has revealed the substantial depletion of Russian military vehicles stored in facilities throughout the course of the conflict in Ukraine.
“Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale”, the ISW explained on X.
“Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years.”
Open-source intelligence account Jompy, which monitors Russian military depots, also reported on X that Russia‘s stores of armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) had decreased by nearly a third (32 percent) compared to prewar levels.
This translates to a loss of 4,763 vehicles, with only 10,389 remaining compared to 15,152 in 2021.
The ISW indicated that Russia had withdrawn a significant portion of its MT-LB multipurpose AFVs from storage, with only 922 remaining compared to 2,527 before the conflict. Similarly, the number of BMD airborne amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) dwindled to just 244, down from 637 prewar.
The depletion extends to other vehicle reserves, including newer model BTR-60s, 70s, and 80s. Currently, Russia is estimated to field between 1,000 and 2,000 of its remaining MT-LB multi-purpose amphibious AFVs.
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) previously assessed Russia‘s ability to sustain its annual rate of vehicle losses, estimating losses of over 3,000 AFVs last year alone. As a result, Russia resorted to reactivating vehicles from storage, including approximately 1,180 main battle tanks and about 2,470 IFVs and armored personnel carriers.
Additional reports from open-source intelligence account Marsed on X suggested that Russia had removed approximately 60 percent of its artillery systems from storage bases during the war.
However, significant portions of the remaining artillery systems were deemed unusable due to degradation and incompatibility with modern ammunition. The ISW warned that Russia‘s losses of Soviet-era vehicle stocks far exceed its defense industrial base’s capacity to replace them in the short term.
This challenge may persist for many years, potentially requiring a transition of the Russian economy to a wartime footing, a move that President Putin has sought to avoid thus far.