Let’s go over electoral college math to justify my claim.
Today the Silver Bulletin posts this interesting comment.
Last update: 12:15 p.m., Sunday, October 13. This has been a pretty good week of polling for Trump. A series of national surveys released on Sunday morning showed Kamala Harris ahead by an average of 1.7 points — a result consistent with the Electoral College being a toss-up or slightly leaning toward Trump, according to our model. At the same time, the vibes have shifted more than is really justified by the data. The election remains a toss-up.
I think Nate Silver is behind the curve, especially if his model is consistent with “being a toss-up or slightly leaning toward Trump.”
This is somewhat of a nitpick, but should Trump be slightly ahead or behind? It doesn’t matter. The question is really whether momentum will save the day for Trump.
Silver is not properly accounting for momentum. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at the math based on the odds that Silver provides.
Trifecta Odds
The odds of a Harris Blue Wall (PA, MI, WI) sweep are easy to calculate.
Let’s also calculate the Red Wall states (GA, AZ, NC)
Blue Wall Sweep
PA (0.556) * WI (0.559) * MI (0.582) = 0.181.
The odds of Harris winning the trifecta is only 18.1 percent.
However, we cannot presume Trump will necessarily win NC, GA, and AZ. Nor are all of those states totally independent.
Red Wall Sweep
Red Wall sweep math looks as follows: AZ (0.667) * GA (0.596) * NC (0.616) = 0.245.
But Trump has other options. If he wins PA (0.444) and NV (.448) = 0.199 then he can afford to lose one of NC, GA, or AZ.
Permutations
These permutations are more favorable to Trump than Harris because Trump is further ahead in the Red Wall States than Harris is in the Blue Wall States.
And whereas Harris losing Pennsylvania would be near-fatal to her campaign, Trump can afford to lose Georgia or North Carolina if he wins Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Presumptions
The above permutations depend on Silver being correct on the current odds.
I challenge that notion.
Polymarket has Trump 54.0 to Harris 45.5. Nate Silver has Harris 51.8 to Trump 47.9.
How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Yesterday, I asked How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Based on momentum and the idea that Silver using too many stale polls, I suggest that Polymarket has better odds. Either way, it’s close to a tossup. No one knows if Harris or Trump is overweighted.
I would rather be in Trump’s shoes. Silver says the opposite.
There are 22 days remaining. Don’t pretend you know who will win. You don’t. Nor does anyone else.
Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate
Meanwhile, in case you missed it, please see Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate According to NYT/Siena Poll
The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump.
Rather, the best Republican news is the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.
Polymarket has Republican odds of taking the Senate at 77.5 percent. That seems about right.