The outcome in a mere 11 seats may determine which party wins the House of Representatives.
The odds of a clean sweep by either party in the Senate, House, and White House are not that great.
Democrats are highly likely to lose the Senate, and close analysis of RaceToTheWH stats suggests Republicans will struggle to win the House.
Ratings
- Safe D or R: Favorite has a 95%+ Chance.
- Lean D or R: Favorite has a 76-85% Chance.
- Tossup: Favorite has
I disagree with those weightings. And I strongly suspect the reason is to be able to count the ratings they got right without error.
Tilts are 65+ percent calls, hardly going out on a limb.
House Map Analysis
If all of the lean, likely, and tilt races go according to current odds (they won’t), then Republicans would need a sweep of the 11 races rated tossup.
If instead we assume the all of the safe + lean races break as suggested, we can discuss what it would take for Republicans to win the House.
One small advantage Republicans have is in the Tilts. Republicans only have 3 tilts but Democrats have 7.
Of the 21 tossups or tilts (counting Republican tilts), Republicans need to win 17 of those races or pull off major upsets elsewhere.
If we redefine tossup as 55 percent or less, there are only four genuinely competitive races out of 435. Sheeesh!
Eleven Tossups
- ME-2: D 53.1%
- NY-19: D 51.9%
- NY-17: D 52.0%
- MI-7: R 53.9%
- IA-1: R 58.6%
- CO-3: R 61.7%
- AZ-1: R 64.4%
- CA-41: R 58.8%
- CA-22: D 61.6%
- OR-5: D 56.1%
- WA-3: D 57.1%
Of those, I would only rate the first four as genuine tossups.
Polymarket has the Democrat’s odds of winning the House at 56 percent. If the RaceToTheWH odds are accurate, that’s on the high side unless polls are overcounting Democrats nationally.
538 House Odds
In House simulations, 538 says Republicans win control 55 times out of 100
Its definition of tossup is a more reasonable 60 percent threshold, with ten seats defined as tossup.
The 538 projection is 219 seats to 216. That’s a genuine tossup.
How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Polymarket has Trump 54.9 to Harris 44.7. Yesterday Nate Silver has Harris 51.8 to Trump 47.9.
On October 12, I asked How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Based on momentum and the idea that Silver using too many stale polls, I suggest that Polymarket has better odds. Either way, it’s close to a tossup. No one knows if Harris or Trump is overweighted.
I would rather be in Trump’s shoes. Silver says the opposite.
Note: Silver just posted new odds. They are now 51.0 Harris to 48.7 Trump. The rest is a recount.
As expected in this corner, momentum is slowly eating into the alleged lead of Harris.
There are 22 days remaining. Don’t pretend you know who will win. You don’t. Nor does anyone else.
Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate
Meanwhile, in case you missed it, please see Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate According to NYT/Siena Poll
The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump.
Rather, the best Republican news is the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.
Polymarket has Republican odds of taking the Senate at 77.5 percent. That seems about right.
Red Wall vs Blue Wall: Trump Has a Much Easier Path to a Victory
Finally, please see Red Wall vs Blue Wall: Trump Has a Much Easier Path to a Victory
There are scenarios where Trump could lose Georgia or North Carolina and still win.
It is much more unlikely Harris could suffer a loss in Pennsylvania or Michigan and win.