Key Points
- The Doomsday Clock, a measure of how close the world may be to catastrophe, has been moved slightly further.
- The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have maintained the clock since it was set up in 1947.
- It said threats of nuclear war, climate change, infectious disease and misuse of technology were among the factors.
The Doomsday Clock symbolising how close humanity is to global catastrophe has ticked one second closer to ‘midnight’ as concerns on nuclear war, climate and public health were jolted by US President Donald Trump’s return.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which set up the clock at the start of the Cold War in 1947, shifted the clock to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been, a week after .
The clock was last moved to 90 seconds to midnight over nuclear-armed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
It was originally placed at seven minutes to midnight in 1947.
“At 89 seconds to midnight, the doomsday clock stands closer to catastrophe than at any moment in its history,” said former Colombian president and Nobel Peace laureate Juan Manuel Santos, chair of The Elders, a group of major former leaders.
“The clock speaks to the existential threats that confront us and the need for unity and bold leadership to turn back its hands,” he told a news conference in Washington to present the findings from the board of experts.
“This is a bleak picture. But it is not yet irreversible,” he said.
Why has the Doomsday Clock been moved?
Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, said the factors that shaped the decision — nuclear risk, climate change, the potential misuse of advances in science and technology — were not new in 2024, but there had been “insufficient progress” in addressing key challenges.
“Setting the Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight is a warning to all world leaders,” Holz added.
The organisation said the United States, China and Russia have the prime responsibility to pull the world back from the brink, and urged good-faith international dialogue.
Santos said that the US withdrawal from the Paris climate accord and World Health Organization set back the planet on two top risks.
Former Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos said the Doomsday Clock painted a “bleak picture” but the widespread catastrophe it symbolised is “not yet irreversible”. Source: AAP, AP / Mark Schiefelbein
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine launched Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War Two.
“The war in Ukraine continues to loom as a large source of nuclear risk. That conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons at any moment due to a rash decision or through accident and miscalculation,” Holz said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in November lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, a move the Kremlin described as a signal to the West amid a war in which Ukraine has received arms supplied by the United States and its allies.
Russia’s updated doctrine set a framework for conditions under which Putin could order a strike from the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal.
Russia said in October it will not discuss signing a new treaty with the United States to replace the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty limiting each side’s strategic nuclear weapons that expires in 2026, because Moscow believes it must be broadened and expanded to cover other countries.
“Russian aggression in Ukraine, including repeated use of nuclear threats since the war began, has been disturbing. In addition, Russia’s recent backtracking from important arms control treaties is an alarming sign of increasing nuclear risk,” Holz said.
The Middle East has been another source of instability with the Hamas-Israel and broader regional hostilities involving countries including Iran.
Nuclear-armed China has stepped up military pressure near Taiwan and nuclear-armed North Korea continues testing various ballistic missiles.
“We are watching closely and hope that the ceasefire in Gaza will hold. Tensions in the Middle East including with Iran are still dangerously unstable,” Holz said.
“There are other potential hot spots around the world, including Taiwan and North Korea. Any of these could turn into a conflagration involving nuclear powers, with unpredictable and potentially devastating outcomes.”
Last year was the , according to the UN World Meteorological Organization. Climate change is worsening storms and raising the risk of wildfires, according to scientists.
“While there has been impressive growth in wind and solar energy, the world is still falling short of what is necessary to prevent the worst aspects of climate change,” Holz said.
Infectious diseases were also identified as a key risk. With many people’s memories of the COVID-19 pandemic fading, Santos said “we have to remind them what happened — and what will happen will be worse, according to all the scientists”.
Suzet McKinney, a public health expert on the board of Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said the risks of infectious disease were compounded by advances in artificial intelligence, which increase the risks that rogue actors could unleash biological weapons.
Experts have also warned that artificial intelligence risked worsening disinformation.
Holz said: “All of these dangers are greatly exacerbated by a potent threat multiplier — the spread of misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy theories that degrade the communication ecosystem and increasingly blur the line between truth and falsehood.”
