Flights across the Middle East no longer hold “zero-risk”, according to a major flight operations organisation, OpsGroup.
Used by both pilots and air traffic controllers, the group said in a blog post the “risk to civil aviation in the region has changed at a pace we have never seen before”.
A significant portion of airspace has been closed off globally with safe long-haul flight routes between Europe and Asia becoming increasingly restricted. This is due to the war between Russia and Ukraine coupled with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Airlines across the world have their own precautions and measures in place to minimise the risk while flying.
However, there are now just three remaining flight paths from Europe to Asia, all of which pass over or narrowly fly around the Middle East.
The northern route
The first of the three flight routes is the northern route. Due to its path being the furthest from any conflict zone, it has quickly become a favourite for long-haul flyers. It spans from Europe, through northern Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and across the Caspian Sea.
If the flight is travelling to south-east Asia, the plane will pass through non-hazardous countries, however, flights to south Asian destinations will fly over Afghanistan.
OpsGroup says the largest risk associated with the northern route is flying through Afghanistan due to the potential risk of having to land there. The country has operated without any air traffic control since the Taliban overthrew the government in 2021.
The central route
The second flight path choice is the central route which holds major risk when flying above Iraq due the close proximity to Iranian airspace in light of the conflict between Israel and Iran.
The route flies across Turkey before dipping into Iraq and reaching the Persian Gulf and the United Arab Emirates.
However, the biggest risk coming with this route is the “well-publicised risks of militant and terrorist activity which may target civil aircraft with anti-aircraft weaponry”, according to OpsGroup, as the online forum states how passenger jets could be “misidentified by air defence systems targeting drones which are frequently used to conduct attacks in northern Iraq that originate from Turkey and Iran”.
The southern route
The third route starts the same as the other two, through Egypt, yet veers eastwards over the Red Sea, towards Saudi Arabia.
More popular than perhaps the central route, the path is not directly impacted by any hostilities between Israel and Iran, providing a “safer diversion option than a transit of Iraq”, OpsGroup says.
However, one risk is posed by the Iran-backed and Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, who have been firing missiles at cargo boats.