Trump is ahead in the latest poll. Younger voters leave the Biden camp. James Carville has a meltdown.
Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden
A CNN poll shows Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge
Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden as the campaign – and the former president’s criminal trial – move forward, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in the coming rematch, opinions about the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House now appear to work in Trump’s favor, with most Americans saying that, looking back, Trump’s term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Biden’s has so far been a failure.
Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while Biden’s stands at 43%, not significantly different from January’s 45%.
Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.
Republicans now are more unified around the idea that Trump’s presidency was a success than Democrats are that Biden’s has been one. Overall, 92% of Republicans call Trump’s time in office a success, while just 73% of Democrats say Biden’s has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trump’s presidency was successful, while only 37% see Biden’s as a success.
Biden with his energy mandates, flouting of the supreme court, radical tax proposals, slave reparations, and the desire to pack the courts is now considered the greater threat to democracy.
The Economy
Biden’s approval ratings for the economy (34%) and inflation (29%) remain starkly negative, as voters say economic concerns are more important to them when choosing a candidate than they were in each of the past two presidential contests. In the new poll, 65% of registered voters call the economy extremely important to their vote for president, compared with 40% who felt that way in early 2020 and 46% who said the same at roughly this point in 2016. Those voters who say the economy is deeply important break heavily for Trump in a matchup against Biden, 62% to 30%.
A broad majority of all Americans, 70%, say economic conditions in the US are poor, with many, particularly Republicans, who feel that way saying their views would be more affected by a political shift than a change in the economy itself.
Americans’ perceptions of their own finances also remain negative, with 53% saying they are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation while 47% are satisfied. Dissatisfaction is starkly prevalent among those with lower incomes (67% dissatisfied in households with annual incomes lower than $50,000), people of color (64% say they are dissatisfied) and younger Americans (61% of those younger than 45 say they are dissatisfied).
Other Issues
Considering other issue priorities for the upcoming election, 58% of voters call protecting democracy an extremely important issue, the only other issue tested that a majority considers central to their choice. Nearly half call immigration, crime and gun policy deeply important (48% each), with health care (43%), abortion (42%) and nominations to the US Supreme Court (39%) each deeply important to about 4 in 10 voters. At the lower end of the scale, just 33% consider foreign policy that important, 27% climate change, 26% the war between Israel and Hamas, and 24% student loans.
Impressions
A sizable 17% of registered voters say they have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, and in choosing between the two, they break for Trump, 43% to 31%, with 25% of that group saying they would vote for someone else, skip the contest entirely or just aren’t sure who they would support.
In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, the poll finds Biden faring worse than in previous CNN polls among the youngest voters, trailing Trump by a 51%-to-40% margin among voters younger than 35. Biden’s deficit with voters in that group is driven largely by those who did not vote in 2020. With that group excluded, voters between the ages of 18 and 34 in this poll divide 46% for Biden to 47% for Trump.
Among all voters, Biden remains at a bit of a disadvantage relative to Trump in terms of the share of voters who have ruled out voting for him: 52% say there’s no chance they would support him, while 47% say there’s no chance they would back Trump, both numbers are similar to the level found in a fall CNN survey. A small share of registered voters – 5% for Biden, 3% for Trump – say that although they are not currently backing that candidate they would consider them.
But the poll finds that Biden voters and Trump voters largely just don’t understand each other. Among those who do not currently support Biden, 66% say they don’t understand why anyone would support him, and 63% of those not backing Trump say they can’t understand why anyone would support him.
Carville Meltdown
Question of the Day
Do young people really want another old white man yelling at them to vote Democrat?
Biden Calls on the Press
Q&A on Israel
Mish: “Votes that would have gone to Biden, don’t go to Trump, but they vanish (no vote)” or adding today, go to Kennedy or Jill Stein.
My opinion expressed yesterday is exactly what James Carville is having a meltdown over toady.
Swing State Poll Shows Black Voters Abandoning Biden In Huge Numbers
On April 12, I commented Swing State Poll Shows Black Voters Abandoning Biden In Huge Numbers
Blacks constitute only 14 percent of the voting age population, but the swings toward Trump are so huge they could decide the election.
WSJ: “While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president.”
That’s an 18 percentage point swing, minimum, for black males, if the national results and the swing state voting is similar.
Younger Voters and Blacks Disatisfied
According to the CNN poll, 61% of those younger than 45 say they are dissatisfied.
Younger voters and blacks when overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020. Trump has huge pickups in these groups.
People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.
Generational Homeownership Rates
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower than the home ownership rate of millennials.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Home Prices Hit New Record High
The latest Case-Shiller housing data shows home prices hit a new record high. Adding insults and costs, the 30-year mortgage rate ended last week at 7.50 percent
Youth Poll
On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds?
A: Rent
Many with rent as their top concern will switch to Trump. They are fed up with rising inflation. Rent is up at least 0.4 percent per month for 30 months.
Young voters propelled Biden over the top in 2020. Things look very different today. Many voters who do not like either Trump or Biden will sit this election out.
Carville’s rant does not change these issues.
Tyler Mitchell