The advance rush to beat tariffs hugely distorted trade data in January.
Advance Economic Report
Please consider the Advance Economic Report on the trade deficit and inventories.
Advance International Trade in Goods
- The international trade deficit was $153.3 billion in January, up $31.2 billion from $122.0 billion in December.
- Exports of goods for January were $172.2 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports.
- Imports of goods for January were $325.4 billion, $34.6 billion more than December imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $905.2 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent) from December 2024, and were up 1.1 percent (±0.9 percent) from January 2024.
- The November 2024 to December 2024 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent) to down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories
- Retail inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $821.3 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent) from December 2024, and were up 4.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from January 2024.
- The November 2024 to December 2024 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent) to down 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent).
Goods Balance of Trade and Advance Goods Balance
This number will stick as a record for quite some time.
Look on the bright side. Trump will blame this on Biden then claim the improvement.
Goods Exports and Imports
Goods Exports and Imports Details
- Exports: Up $3.3 billion, 1.9 percent
- Imports: Up $34.6 billion, 11.8 percent
- Trade Deficit: Up $31.2 billion from $122.0 billion, 25.6 percent
This surge in imports will not be immediately sold to end consumers.
Thus, the inventory numbers, wholesale up only 0.7 percent with retail down 0.1 percent strikes me as more than a bit skewed.
More Economic Distortions
February 28, 2025: Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Hit Record High 6.56 Percent
As borrowers struggle to keep up with car payments, auto lenders offer payment extensions to keep those loans from going bad.
February 14, 2925: Retail Sales Crash – Did the Consumer Finally Throw in the Towel?
The Census Department shows huge across-the-board declines in multiple categories, down 0.9 percent overall.
February 19, 2025: Housing Starts Drop 9.8 Percent, Unable to Retain Any Traction
Housing starts have mostly been rangebound since late 2022 as high prices and high mortgage rates dampen demand.
Trump’s Tariffs Will Increase the Cost of a Pickup Truck by $8,000.
On February 26, I noted Trump’s Tariffs Will Increase the Cost of a Pickup Truck by $8,000.
Trump says it’s full speed ahead with tariffs. It will cost US jobs.
Is the plan to make cars so unaffordable that nobody buys one?
Factor in less immigration, a cutoff of aid for illegal immigrants, and student loan repayments and you have a nasty mix of recessionary factors.