Let’s discuss polling trends and momentum. Who’s ahead, Trump or Harris?
In the past week, the Silver Bulletin shows Trump has gained ground in 9 of eleven states . Florida, Texas, Minnesota, and New Mexico don’t matter.
Trump’s Battleground Scorecard vs Week Ago
- Pennsylvania: +0.4
- Michigan: +0.8
- Wisconsin: +0.9
- North Carolina: +0.1
- Georgia: -0.3
- Arizona: +0.3
- Nevada: +0.9
That’s would be a clean sweep except for Georgia
Let’s home in on Wisconsin.
Seven Wisconsin Polls
I appreciate the fact that Nate Silver rates pollsters and takes note of historical bias. He also throws away or discounts candidate-sponsored polls.
One thing he does that I dislike (to the extent that he does) is carry on page after page. For example, Silver has 10 pages of polls on Wisconsin.
I don’t object to the number of pages. I do object to factoring in five pages of polls dating to the beginning of September.
Page three has seven polls and only one of them is for Trump. A poll by MassINC from 9/12 to 9/18 has Harris up by 6.5 points.
Silver does not toss away outliers and I am fine with that. The poll only has a very tiny influence, but I would not give it any influence at all.
I crossed out all of the polls I would exclude and purposely left in Trafalgar because R +1.1 is to Silver D +1.5.
I don’t know the bias of the pollsters I did not list. Silver has a downloadable list of all the pollsters but it is horribly out of date. The ratings I did post are from a newer subset of 36 pollsters.
Silver does not answer emails and I wonder if he even reads them. Good luck getting a question answered.
Who’s Ahead in Wisconsin?
Silver says Harris is. But he also calls it a tossup. Discarding more stale polls would put Trump a tiny bit ahead, even if the state remains a tossup.
It appears I am quibbling over tiny percentages.
But I also want to stress a belief that Silver’s model improperly accounts for momentum and keeps stale polls on far too long.
National Election
Silver has Harris ahead 52.2 to 47.6. Polymarket says Trump is ahead 54.9 to 44.7. That’s a discrepancy of 7.1 percentage points.
I think Polymarket has this correct for reasons stated: momentum and stale polls.
Also, Trump only needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, assuming he wins Georgia.
And if Trump wins Pennsylvania and Nevada, he can afford to lose Georgia. Michigan, and Wisconsin.
These extra parlays add up.
But there are 23 days remaining. Don’t pretend you know who will win. You don’t. Nor does anyone else.
Silver says it’s a tossup but he would rather be in Harris’ shoes. I suggest, and so does momentum, that it’s the other way around.
Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate
Meanwhile, in case you missed it, please see Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate According to NYT/Siena Poll
The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump. It’s the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.