Housing continues to slowly weaken slowly. The key downturn this month is in multi-family starts.
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,505,000.
- This is 6.1 percent above the revised October rate of 1,419,000, but is 0.2 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,508,000.
- Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 972,000; this is 0.1 percent above the revised October figure of 971,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in November.
Housing Starts
- Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000.
- This is 1.8 percent (±10.6 percent) below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent (±11.7 percent) below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000.
- Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,011,000; this is 6.4 percent (±10.8 percent) above the revised October figure of 950,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 264,000.
Housing Completions
- Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 1,038,000; this is 3.3 percent (±8.7 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,005,000.
- The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 544,000.
Details from the Census Bureau New Residential Construction report.
Housing Starts 1959-Present
The above chart puts a nice historical perspective on where we are. Housing starts were much higher in January of 1959.
Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family
The trend on starts is negative led by multi-family.
Decline Since March 2022 Peak
- Total starts fell from 1,828 to 1,289. That’s a decline of 29.5 percent.
- Single-family fell from 1,201 to 1,011. That’s a decline of 15.8 percent.
- Multi-family fell from 627 to 278. That’s a decline of 55.7 percent.
Since May 2023, single-family starts have been steady but in a very choppy fashion, averaging about 1,000. But multi-family continues to decline.
If we are not building enough multi-family units, in the right places, good luck with bringing down the cost of rent.
I will cover that further in a second post.
Another Grim Set of US Industrial Production Numbers
In case you missed it, please note The Fed Releases Another Grim Set of US Industrial Production Numbers
Industrial production is below the January 2008 level. Manufacturing is even more abysmal.
However, retail sales were another scorcher.
For details, please see Retail Sales Explode Higher Led by Autos and Nonstore Purchases