Total housing starts declined 6.8 percent in July, on top of a 1.8 percentage point negative revision.
The New Residential Construction stats for July were a disaster.
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,396,000.
- This is 4.0 percent below the revised June rate of 1,454,000 and is 7.0 percent below the July 2023 rate of 1,501,000.
- Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 938,000; this is 0.1 percent below the revised June figure of 939,000.
- Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 408,000 in July.
Housing Starts
- Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000. This is 6.8 percent (±10.3 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,329,000 and is 16.0 percent (±10.5 percent) below the July 2023 rate of 1,473,000.
- Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 851,000; this is 14.1 percent (±8.3 percent) below the revised June figure of 991,000.
- The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 363,000.
Housing Completions
- Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,529,000. This is 9.8 percent (±8.4 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,696,000, but is 13.8 percent (±13.9 percent) above the July 2023 rate of 1,343,000.
- Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,054,000; this is 0.5 percent (±10.4 percent)* above the revised June rate of 1,049,000.
- The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 473,000.
Month-Over-Month Margins of Error
- ±10.3 percent for starts
- ±8.4 percent for completions
Housing Starts 1959-Present
As a point of reference, starts are 25.3 percent below the January 1959 level of 1,657.
Housing Starts, Permits, Completions
Housing Units Under Construction
Housing Activity Peaked Summer of 2022
Based on units under construction, housing peaked in the summer of 2022 as mortgage rates shot over 5.0 percent.
Yet, home prices kept rising as existing-home sales plunged. Nobody wanted to trade a 3.0 percent mortgage for one much higher, currently about 6.5 percent.
Homebuilder rate buydowns are not enough to stimulate housing.
If this looks recessionary, it’s because a recession has begun.
Recession Underway
July 25, 2024: “All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions
August 2: 2024: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
August 15, 2024: Industrial Production Declines 0.6 Percent on Top of Big Negative Revisions
It seems to me that all hell breaking loose.