The Gulf Stream could be on the brink of collapse (Image: 20th Century Fox)
A vital weather system that moves warm water through the Atlantic Ocean, creating the Gulf Stream, is on the brink of collapse, threatening “catastrophic” cooling across the globe for centuries, some scientists have warned.
More than 40 top climate scientists have penned an open letter warning that a key ocean circulation process in the Atlantic, could be on the brink of failure, threatening the Gulf Stream and other processes that keep Europe warmer.
The Gulf Stream is a warm and Atlantic current following the eastern coast of the US and Canada, before crossing the ocean towards Europe, ensuring the west of the Continent is warmer than it would otherwise be.
In what mirrors the plot of the 2004 film The Day After Tomorrow, the 44 scientists warn that the disaster would stem from the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
The AMOC effectively moves heat around the Atlantic Ocean. In The Day After Tomorrow the world is thrown into a new ice age after climate change causes the Gulf Stream to collapse.
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Scientists warn the system could be on the brink of collapse (Image: Getty)
But, the Gulf Stream is just one small part of the AMOC and the group of scientists warn of “devastating and irreversible impacts” that would impact “the entire world for centuries to come,” should their fears be realised.
It is believed that the last time the AMOC collapsed was towards the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago.
Temperatures in western Europe plummeted by up to 10°C (18°F) as a result.
A new collapse would cause “unprecedented extreme weather”, especially in Nordic countries, warn the scientists.
The UK could cool by an average 10°C to 15°C (18°F to 27°F) they warn with Scotland becoming much colder than the south of the country.
Globally, a tropical rainfall belt and monsoon areas could shift southwards, causing widespread drought and famine.
Melting ice in the Atlantic is affecting these processes (Image: Getty)
For some years, research has suggested that the AMOC process is slowing down from glacial thawing.
When it works, warm water travels north from tropical areas, before meeting sea ice around Greenland and Nordic countries, where it cools and becomes more salty.
This makes it denser, meaning it sinks and returns south where it warms again and rises, and so the cycle continues in a process called deep water formation.
However, scientists say the process has been affected by rising global temperature, which has seen more fresh water enter the ocean from melting glaciers.
This, they say, has diluted the denser salty water and less has been sinking. If the process stopped altogether, they say, it would weaken the Gulf Stream, disrupting the world’s weather patterns.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its last report about the situation that: “There is medium confidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100.”
That means we should be safe for at least the next 75 years. However, the scientists behind the open letter fear that the risk has been “massively underestimated.”
They wrote: “The passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next few decades.”
And, University of Copenhagen research published this year suggested the collapse could be as soon as next year.
The open letter added: “The purpose of this letter is to draw attention to the fact that only ‘medium confidence’ in the AMOC not collapsing is not reassuring, and clearly leaves open the possibility of an AMOC collapse during this century.
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“Even with a medium likelihood of occurrence, given that the outcome would be catastrophic and impacting the entire world for centuries to come, we believe more needs to be done to minimize this risk.”
The AMOC was first measured only 20 years ago, in 2004, and ever since there have been concerns that it could be weakening.
Some scientist say we don’t have enough data or understanding about how it works to be able to correctly predict any changes.
Dr Ben Booth, senior climate scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said at the time: “Whilst there is definitely a role for papers like this, the conclusions are far from settled science.
“A lot of caution needs to be taken in interpreting the findings as a definitive inference of the future overturning change.”