Final GDPNow Forecast for Q4 Drops 0.9 Percentage Points on Trade Data

Tyler Mitchell By Tyler Mitchell Jan30,2025 #finance

The Atlanta Fed GDP model forecast fell from 3.2 percentage points to 2.3 percentage points.

Data from Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish.

The final GDPNow Estimate for the Fourth Quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent as of January 29, 2025.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on January 29, down from 3.2 percent on January 28.

After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.1 percent to -0.9 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.10 percentage points to -0.61 percentage points.

New Trade Deficit Record

Earlier today I commented Imports Surge 3.9 Percent Exports Plunge 4.5 Percent, New Trade Deficit Record

Today’s trade report will have Trump howling.

I am not surprised by this decline in expected growth rate. But 2.3 percent is still a solid number. Real final sales is an even higher 2.8 percent.

We will see what happens with a myriad of Trump policies including immigration, tariffs, regulations, deficits and interest rates.

2025 rates to be a totally different ball game on many fronts than the last four years.

Related Posts

January 23, 2025: Economically Clueless Trump “Will Demand Interest Rates Drop Immediately”

With his video address to Davos today, Trump proves he is economically clueless.

January 23, 2025: A Great Tariff Experiment as Trump Repeats Threat of Universal Tariffs

All eyes are on February 1 as Trump renews his threat for universal tariffs.

Tyler Mitchell

By Tyler Mitchell

Tyler is a renowned journalist with years of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, entertainment, and technology. His insightful analysis and compelling storytelling have made him a trusted source for breaking news and expert commentary.

Related Post