BLS response rates plunged after COVID and never recovered, especially job market surveys.
BLS Response Rate Notes
- CPI C&S: Consumer Price Index Commodities & Services
- JOLTS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
- CES: Current Employment Statistics
CES is the establishment survey, monthly nonfarm payrolls jobs report.
Sample Sizes
- CES: 70,000 Establishments
- CPI: 10,500 Establishments
- JOLTS: 7,200 Establishment
- QCEW: 12.2 Million Establishments Quarterly
- BED: 9.2 Million Establishments
QCEW stands for Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. It represents 95 percent of the data.
BED stands for Business Employment Dynamics. It is a large subset of QCEW.
Sample Size Data
QCEW, BED, CES Characteristics
CES Response Size
- The above image says the CES Survey Size was 629,000 establishments. However, the monthly survey size is 70,000.
- Of that 70,000 only 43.0 percent respond. That’s about 30,100 out of 12.2 million.
- Thus, monthly jobs reports are based on a 0.25 percent sample of the data.
JOLTS Response Size
- The JOLTS sample size is 7,200 establishments.
- Of that 7,200 only 33.4 percent respond. That’s about 2,405 out of 12.2 million.
- Thus, monthly JOLTS reports are based on a 0.02 percent sample of the data.
Who Responded and Who Didn’t?
The surveys are voluntary. So who responded and who didn’t?
Smaller businesses are much less likely to respond to such surveys because they don’t have a dedicated employment office that deals with government BS.
In particular, any struggling or tiny business likely does not have time for this BS. The moment they see the word “voluntary”, the survey goes in the ashcan.
Every Month, All Eyes Are on BS
Nonetheless, every month, mainstream media dissects the monthly jobs report as if it means something.
I too produce a monthly report, but I also point out the flaws, the discrepancies between the surveys, and the poor quality of the data relative to QCEW.
Employment Drops by 355,000 But Jobs Rise by 227,000 in November
On December 6, I commented Employment Drops by 355,000 But Jobs Rise by 227,000 in November
The strange jobs reports continue as the divergence between jobs and employment widens again.
Job Stats vs One Year Ago
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,274,000
- Employment: -725,000
- Full Time Employment: -1,342,000
In the last year, nonfarm payrolls are up by 2.3 million while employment is down by 725,000 and full-time employment is down by over 1.3 million.
A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
On August 22, 2024 I gave A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
Those negative revisions are a direct result of the BLS Birth-Death model gone haywire.
Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
On November 20, I commented Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
Hard evidence from QCEW report suggests more negative revisions coming for BLS nonfarm payroll report.
The 2024 Destruction of Small Business Employment in Pictures
The BLS payroll reports smack of oversampling large employers and undersampling small employers where jobs have been trending lower.
For more discussion, please see The 2024 Destruction of Small Business Employment in Pictures