A set of exit polls shows SPD is likely to hang on as “winner” of the Germany state elections in Brandenburg. But kiss the Greens goodbye.
Olaf Scholz’s Party Narrowly Ahead of AfD
The Guardian reports Olaf Scholz’s Party Narrowly Ahead of AfD
At the Brandenburg SPD’s election gathering at the Old Post, a restaurant near the state parliament in Potsdam, there were jubilant cries as the news came in. One reporter on the scene called the response ‘cathartic’, after weeks of a nail biting campaign in which it looked like the party would lose to the AfD for the first time.
Dietmar Woidke, Brandenburg’s leader, who had gambled his future on the result, saying he would resign if his SPD lost to the AfD, took to the floor around 6.15pm telling supporters he was relieved, ‘considering the starting position we were in”.
“We said we’d take on this battle and we said our goal at the outset was to ensure our land didn’t get a big brown stamp on it,” he said.
But he urged SPD members to “put on the euphoria brakes” as the final result was not fully clear.
What Happened?
AfD was strongly in the lead until about the beginning of September. Then there there was a late surge for SPD.
A quick check shows polls for Greens dropped from 7 percent to four percent and CDU from 18 percent to 13.5 percent since July.
It was the September shift of CDU from 16 percent to 13.5 percent that mattered. In actual results, CDU only received 11.5 percent.
Olaf Scholz’ is Germany’s Chancellor. It would have been a huge embarrassment for SPD to lose to AfD.
Tactical Voting Saved the Day, Hooray!?
I fail to see any coalition that makes sense. AfD and BSW are strongly anti-immigration. AfD is Eurosceptic.
If the Greens are out, as it appears It will be tough to form a coalition.
Coalition Math
15.5 percent voted for parties that will get no representation. Those votes will be assigned proportionally.
SPD (32) + AfD (29) + BSW (12) + CDU (11.5) = 84.5
SPD would get 32/84.5 = 37.87 percent of the proportion spread, 5.87 percentage points.
AfD would get 29/84.5 = 34.32 percent of the proportion spread, 5.32 percentage points.
CDU would get 11.5/84.5 = 13.61 percent of the proportion spread, 2.11 percentage points.
BSW would get 12/84.5 = 14.20 percent of the proportion spread, 2.20 percentage points.
A spot check of the math shows 5.87 + 5.32 + 2.11 + 2.2 = 15.5. That’s the percent of votes to be reassigned.
SPD/CDU Coalition = 32 + 11.5 + 5.87 + 2.11 = 51.48 percent. Hooray?
Assuming the numbers hold and my proportion explanation is correct, then mathematically, a “grand coalition” between SPD and CDU can work.
Ironically, if the Greens do hit the five percent threshold, it would take SPD + CDU + the Greens to form a coalition.
What a hoot!
In practice, no coalition makes any sense. So good luck with another German coalition whose only purpose is to suppress others.