Tesla’s much ballyhooed Full Self Driving (FSD) demo was another wait till next year total flop. Some see it differently.
I have to give Musk credit for several things. For starters, I do believe he is a genius. Tesla and SpaceX are proof enough.
Second, Musk is the best salesman in history. Who else could promise FSD every year since at least 2017, not deliver and get away with it?
It’s not just FSD. Musk has promised affordable cars, huge sales of a revolutionary cybertruck, and mass production of electric semis.
In his latest pitch, Musk rebranded robotaxis as cybertaxis, and now is promising an autonomous van the WSJ accurately described as a “an art deco-inspired vehicle that resembled a giant toaster with an interior meant to feel like a spaceship and enough room for 20 passengers.”
The car could begin production “probably” in 2026, Musk said. He didn’t even suggest when the van might come.
Musk Will Never Deliver (On the Current Path)
Please recall Musk that in 2016, Musk said he would demonstrate a car driving itself from Los Angeles to New York City in 2017. It’s now eight years later and Musk still has not delivered.
Musk will never deliver as long as he insists that he will accomplish the mission without expensive radar.
For all his bragging, FSD is noting but glorified cruise control. It is level 2 autonomy which means there must be a driver behind the wheel at all times.
In contrast, Waymo does not require a driver. Waymo has actual unmanned taxi service in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin, 24 hours a day and 7 days a week.
“After over 10 years of Full Self-Driving development, Tesla is limited to a 20-30 acre geofenced 5mph 1950s Disneyland ride on a preprogrammed, premapped and heavily rehearsed route with no traffic and no pedestrians,” Dan O’Dowd, a critic of Tesla and founder of a rival software company, said in a statement. “Tesla robotaxi is nothing more than the latest work of fiction to come out of the Warner Bros. Studio.”
The Musk Striptease Show
Musk is a striptease act in which he repeatedly promises to reveal all at the end of the show but never does. Instead he says “hey look over there” always trying to get your attention on the next big idea.
That is what spawned the cybertruck, cybertaxis, and the cybertoaster (excuse me cybervan).
However, they all have the same flaw. None of those ideas will ever work as long as Musk refuses to use radar.
That is why Musk needs something new.
Meet Optimus Cyberfriend
Optimus in Action
Given Tweet embeds now work only sporadically, if all you see above is a URL line then please Click Here to See Optimus in Action.
But Musk promises “You should be able to buy an Optimus robot for I think $28,000 or $30,000. It can do anything you want.”
Musk is the world’s best ever salesman. No one else could pull this off.
But it’s things like SpaceX that makes Musk a genius. He is going to rescue from deep space astronauts stranded by Boeing.
Starlink is providing internet service to millions without power from recent hurricanes.
Some try to take credit away from Musk by saying he did not create any of these technologies. O.K. Then that makes Musk the best assembler of human capital in history.
A Radical Proposal
I propose a shocking, radical, and controversial idea, never before widely practiced although a few brave souls occasionally try.
I suggest we give credit where credit is due, and none when it isn’t.
And on the political side, I suggest allegiance should be to ideas not individuals, regardless of someone’s political party.
Optimus Valuation
Musk said Optimus could one day add $25 trillion to the company’s market value.
US real GDP is $23.2 trillion as of the second quarter of 2024.
And we supposed to believe this Optimus farce will add $25 trillion to the valuation of Tesla.
When? That’s easy. Next year, of course.
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Robotaxi Forecast
On April 8, I commented Tesla’s Robotaxi August Launch Will Be More Elon Musk Vaporware
Fact check: True.