Trump is suffering from extreme Foot-In-Mouth-Disease. He Just cannot keep on message. Dear Donald, it’s still the economy stupid.
I mentioned to a friend this morning that I thought Trump was behind. Trump got into very hot water twice, likely offending any person with the least bit of common sense.
The above image from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin came out about two hours ago and it confirms what I thought.
Last update: 1:00 p.m, Sunday, August 4: After another day of strong polling, Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since the forecast launched. Although the race is still a toss-up, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in our national polling average, and has a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college.
Trump Questions Kamala’s Race
Listen to the gasp from the audience when Trump says “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black and wants to be known as Black. I respect either one. Obviously, she doesn’t.”
Wow!
That is going to cost Trump tens of thousands and perhaps over a hundred thousand Black votes.
Ironically, this was at a conference when Trump that aimed to build Black support.
Not Just Trump
Also consider Republicans Step Up Attacks on Kamala Harris
Sebastian Gorka, a former aide to Donald Trump, recently referred to the vice president as “colored” and a “DEI hire.” The former president’s campaign referred to Harris as “Low IQ Kamala” on social media. Some of the former president’s supporters have for years donned shirts, carried signs or sported “Joe And The Hoe Gotta Go” bumper stickers.
What Happened to the Polls?
instead of sticking to an economic message, Trump cannot stop from telling the world how great he is and how bad everyone else is.
He cannot control himself. To put it bluntly, Trump would rather throw red meat to howling hyenas than win.
Then, to top it off, Trump twice played race cards and was burnt badly both times.
Even Republicans can’t stand it.
Brian Kemp, Georgia Governor Blasts Trump
Geoff Duncan, the former Republican Lt. Governor of Georgia
Going After Kamala All Wrong
Please consider Abigail Shrier: Republicans, You’re Going After Kamala All Wrong
Here’s what Republican wallowing looks like:
Pushing the idea that Harris is a “DEI hire.” Conservatives insist that calling her a DEI hire is fair and just. After all, DEI is a terrible, unethical system. If the Democrats love DEI so much, why not own it? Biden all but branded Harris a DEI hire when he announced he would only consider female minority candidates.
All true. And all equally beside the point.
Republicans foolish enough to attack Harris as a DEI hire are likely to be startled by the stampede to defend her. For one thing, calling Harris a DEI hire mistakes attacking the system with attacking its beneficiaries. The system of DEI is unethical and must be dismantled. But the beneficiaries did nothing wrong. Were they not supposed to apply for these jobs? Why shame them now?
Consider that we all regard it as immoral for Major League Baseball to have once excluded Black players. The system was rotten, but the players in it—Ruth, Williams, DiMaggio—don’t deserve our contempt. Attack the system, not the players.
The other counterproductive strategy—which some Republicans seem keen to pursue—is “slut shaming” Harris for her affair, early in her career, with the powerful older politician Willie Brown, the married mayor of San Francisco. The charge seems ridiculous when leveled against a happily married woman turning sixty, who looks like a kindly auntie and whose stepchildren call her “Momala.” In four years as the first female veep, she presented a personal side that was warm and conventional, and that’s what voters remember. Shaming her for earlier romantic affairs will only inspire her base to vote early.
The question Republicans ought to confront before leveling any attack is: “Will this energize my supporters more or hers?” For nearly every ad hominem salvo currently flung at Harris, the answer is: hers.
Slut-Slamming Hypocrisy
Slut-slamming is all the more amusing in the light of Trump’s affair with Stormy Daniels, an American pornographic film actress.
Defending Trump
Stop defending Trump. There is no excuse for what he said.
Governor Kemp has it correct.
Peak Trump
On July 21, I commented Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
At the time I made that comment, Nate Silver had Trump’s odds of winning at 72.8 percent to 26.9 percent for Biden with a 0.4 percent chance of no majority (recount of a rogue elector voting for Kennedy).
Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
On July 22, I commented In the Wake Biden’s Campaign Exit, Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
Question of the Day
The following question is how many independents will see things:
“Would I rather have a jackass president who will get some things right, or would I rather take a chance on Harris?“
Let’s be honest about how Trump’s belittling sounds. If you don’t like the word “jackass” then feel free to substitute a word or phrase that suits you.
I do not know the answer to my question, and if you have an ounce of common sense, you will admit you don’t either.
Regardless, such statements will cost Trump votes.
Peak Trump?
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
My statement implies nothing other than widespread belief that Harris-Anyone has a better shot than Biden-Harris.
I nailed the top.
Is Nate Silver Wrong?
Please spare me the sap about Nate Silver being wrong in 2016 or whenever, especially if you liked his odds on July 21.
Silver was wrong, but in a totally different sense than most think. He had the odds wrong, not the election wrong. The election was much closer than the thought. That was the real mistake not the outcome itself.
Had it not been for a last minute Comey bombshell and/or a stupid FIMD by Hillary regarding “deplorables” she would have won. Predicting Hillary to win was reasonable. Calling the odds 70-30 was the mistake.
People act like 30% chances never happen when they happen 30% of the time.
I thought the election was more like 55-45 not 70-30. I still think that is about right.
Comment on Bias (Added after posting)
Modest oversampling is irrelevant. Results are weighted.
And here is a real hoot: Erza Klein moans about Republican Bias.
The worst offender is Rasmussen with a strong Republican bias.
Pollsters generally correct for oversampling one side or another. If they don’t Silver adjusts.
Two weeks ago Republicans loved Silver, now they don’t. The problem isn’t Silver.
The media doesn’t even do their own polls for the most part. Siena does NYT and is very highly rated.
That said, I meant to make a comment that Harris is in a honeymoon period and the polls are likely a bit high.
Things will settle down about a week after the Democrat convention.
Can Trump Win?
Of course! Peak Trump does not imply Trump will lose.
However, after foolishly losing huge numbers of Black and independent votes due to blatantly stupid statements, winning will be much harder.
Winning back back any votes he just lost won’t be easy and may not even be possible. But there still are undecided votes to win or lose.
Best Thing Going for Trump
The best thing going for Trump right now is a weakening economy. I believe a recession has started and it will pick up steam.
July 31: Small Business Employment Growth Is Now Negative (and What It Means)
ADP data shows year-over-year payroll growth is negative 88,000 for small corporations sized 20-49. Trends are negative in all but very large corporations.
August 1: The Manufacturing ISM Index Is Lower Than Every Economist’s Estimate
The ISM manufacturing report was a disaster from every angle, especially employment , production, and backlogs. Employment reading worst since June 2020.
August 1: Commercial Construction Spending Is Down 9 Consecutive Months
Here’s the kicker: It’s not office related. And the Census Department has heavy negative revisions to spending. Let’s investigate.
August 1: Intel Announces 15,000 Job Cuts, 15 Percent of its Workforce
Intel received $8.5 billion in Biden administration grants (Inflation Reduction Act) but announces massive layoffs and halts dividends due to a decline in revenue.
August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions
The headline jobs number was much weaker than the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points.
Recession Has Started
On July 8, I wrote Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
I’ve seen enough. A recession has started. Let’s discuss starting with a very good indicator that has few false positives and no false negatives.
My follow-up post was on August 2.
August 2: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
A recession indicator based off rising unemployment triggered in July. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, takes credit for an indicator she did not invent. Let’s discuss.
A Recession Helps Trump
If Trump can avoid additional cases of severe FIMD and manages to stick to the economy, he can win.
Alternatively, if the recession is deep enough and Trump’s FIMD is of a lesser nature, he can also win.
Otherwise Trump may have blown it. Damage in the last week was enormous.
A recession is still my base case. Meanwhile, if you defend or make excuses for Trump’s antics, you are part of the problem.
Addendum Nate Silver
The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.
Addendum – The Big Point
It is not whether Trump or Harris is in the lead that matters. It is the direction.
How can a fight with Brian Kemp not cost votes? How can stupid statements about race not cost votes?
The BS over sampling and pollster bias is just that. Silver corrects for it. Pollsters also correct for their own weighting errors.
It is (should be) perfectly clear that Trump is acting stupid, and it is costing him votes.