If vote totals and percentages are your justification, Biden had a bigger mandate (that he misread until it blew up).
If Trump Misreads His Mandate
A Wall Street Journal opinion article discusses If Trump Misreads His Mandate
Donald Trump will begin his second term with substantial support and public optimism. This optimism extends well beyond his MAGA Republican base to include a majority of independents, 48% of Hispanic voters and even 41% of black voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Dec. 18.
Joe Biden wasn’t elected to be the second coming of FDR or LBJ. After the tumult of Mr. Trump’s first term, most Americans simply wanted a return to normal and a steady hand at the helm of U.S. foreign policy. Instead, they got a botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, a spike in inflation and a surge of illegal immigration. By the fall of 2021, Mr. Biden’s job approval had fallen to the low 40s, and it never recovered.
According to the Quinnipiac poll, 60% of black voters, 72% of Hispanic voters, and 77% of white voters without college degrees describe the state of the U.S. economy as “not so good” or “poor.” This is the No. 1 problem they want Mr. Trump to solve. If he does, historians and the American people will regard his presidency as successful, and his party will be more likely to win in 2028.
But vulnerabilities lie behind Mr. Trump’s facade of strength, partially because many of his policy proposals are unpopular. For example, 51% of Americans oppose, and only 38% favor, his plan to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China. Although Republicans and white voters without college degrees support it, most groups oppose it, including independents, Hispanics and young adults, whose increased support put him over the top against Kamala Harris. Perhaps these critics of his plan believe, as do many economists, that tariffs will end up raising prices for consumers, contradicting one of the president-elect’s core promises.
Mr. Trump could also overreach on immigration. According to a recent Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, a majority of Americans oppose using the U.S. military to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. The Quinnipiac poll found that 55% of Americans favor giving “most” of these immigrants a path to legal status in the U.S., compared with 36% who support deporting them. And by a ratio of more than 2 to 1, Americans want to continue birthright citizenship—automatically granting citizenship to all children born in the U.S.—rather than ending this practice for children of noncitizens, as the president-elect has proposed.
Mr. Trump will also face public opposition if he tries to use his power to reward his friends and punish his enemies. Two-thirds of Americans polled by the Washington Post would oppose issuing pardons for people convicted of crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol. The same poll found that 60% reject using the Justice Department to investigate the president’s political rivals, 72% oppose police using force to stop anti-Trump protests, and 88% oppose putting reporters in jail for writing stories he dislikes.
Mr. Trump may believe that his massive following, powers of persuasion and sheer determination will be enough to sweep aside these difficulties. He may even dismiss these challenges as trivial in light of the obstacles he overcame in his path back to the White House. But the consequences of defying public opinion would eventually catch up with him.
Deal for Dreamers
Trump has already reversed on his immigration pledges.
That’s a good thing because the costs associated with deporting 15 million immigrants would be huge.
There would be an immediate labor shortage in construction, hotel staffing, cooking, and farm labor.
Trump does have a mandate to boot criminals and close the border. Beyond that, there is no overwhelming mandate, if indeed any mandate at all.
Cost of Tariffs and Cost of Living
A majority of people are for some tariffs. But that’s due to improperly worded questions and misunderstandings.
Trump promotes the myth that foreign nations pay tariffs when in fact US consumers pay tariffs (or alternately there are successful tariff avoidance maneuvers by exporting nations).
Would people support tariffs if you told them who really paid for tariffs and prices would likely go up in response?
We are going to see some tariff hikes from the self-proclaimed “Tariff Man”. But if Trump goes ahead with 60 percent tariffs on China, then US trade with China will come to a grinding halt, with repercussions.
Trump never discusses repercussions or costs. How can there be a mandate if policy costs are hidden?
Trump’s overwhelming mandate is to fix inflation, not hike tariffs.
Reducing the Deficit
Trump also has a mandate to reduce the deficit. But there is no mandate how.
Democrats want to raise taxes on the wealthy (a lie because it inevitably bleeds over to the middle class).
Republicans are counting on DOGE.
But is there a mandate to defund the Department of Education? I have no idea, but I would say just do it.
Can such an idea get through Congress? At a minimum, it would be very difficult.
If four Republican senators would say no or as few as two Republicans in the House would said no, then it won’t happen.
Trump Threatens to Take Down Chip Roy
On December 19, I noted Trump Threatens to Take Down Chip Roy, One of the Only True Fiscal Conservatives
Massive Republican infighting between Trump and fiscal conservatives is underway.
“We’re working right now on how to actually cut spending, which is what the voters sent me to Washington to do,“ said Roy.
Q: Does anyone disagree?
A: Yes, Trump does.
Trump demanded Republicans raise the debt ceiling and threatened to primary Roy.
Trump Threatens to Take Control of Panama Canal
On December 22, I commented Trump Threatens to Take Control of Panama Canal in Dispute Over Costs
“Welcome to the United States Canal!,” says Trump.
Q: Is there a mandate for that act of war?
A: Of course not.
Taking over Panama in an act of war is either idiocy by Trump or an obvious Bluff.
USMCA Best Deal Ever
According to Trump USMCA was the best deal in history. Now he threatens to scrap it.
On October 20, I noted Trump Disavows His Own “Best in History” USMCA Trade Deal
Trump now says he would rather have no trade deal than the deal he negotiated.
This is an implicit admission that Trump is a poor deal maker. More importantly, Trump unilaterally threatens to break a treaty approved by the Senate and signed by Trump.
Q: Is there a mandate to break treaties?
A: Of course not.
This is another threat so awful that it’s an obvious bluff or blatantly stupid. Take your pick. Either way there is no mandate.
What Industries Will Suffer the Most Under Trump’s Plan to “Make Tariff’s Great Again”?
On November 27, I asked What Industries Will Suffer the Most Under Trump’s Plan to “Make Tariff’s Great Again”?
Trump is upping the rhetoric on Mexico, Canada, and China on top of previous tariff threats.
Who will be hardest hit? Click on the above link for the answer.
A Majority of One
On November 30, I commented A Tiny Republican Majority in the House Will Make Legislation Difficult
[Assuming Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-NY is quickly confirmed for ambassador to United Nations, and Mike Waltz, R-Fl for national security adviser] the House would be 217-215 with Republicans having zero votes to spare in a flip, but one vote to spare due to an absence or abstention.
A single flip would make it 216-216. Even at 219-215 after the special elections, Republicans can afford at most one flip making a vote 218-216. A second flip would result in a 217-217 tie.
A Mandate by One
Is 217-215 or 220-215 a mandate?
New York will be in no hurry to fill that seat.
So even if the others are quickly filled, the best Republican can look for in 2025 is 219-215 meaning they will have precisely one vote to spare in the House.
Is that a mandate? To do what?
Trump Backs Down From Strong Sweeping Deportation Promise
Earlier today I noted Trump Backs Down From Strong Sweeping Deportation Promise
That’s a good thing, because the mandate is not mass deportations. The mandate is to close the border and work out a deal with dreamers.
Political Capital
Meanwhile, Trump keeps wasting political capital when he has little to begin with, especially in the House.
Nearly 40 reps stood up to Trump when he sought to eliminate the debt ceiling.
Each time this happens, the easier it is to stand up to Trump.
Yeah, go ahead and primary those who disagree. Nothing will get done with the ensuing bickering, then in two years the majority of one will be gone.
It’s no way to run the country.