Initial claims fell but continued claims rose. Due to DOGE, both will soon surge.
Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending March 1.
Initial Unemployment Claims
- In the week ending March 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 242,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 224,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,000.
Initial Claims and 4-Week Average
Continued Unemployment Claims
Continued Claims
- The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending February 22, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 22 was 1,897,000, an increase of 42,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- The previous week’s level was revised down by 7,000 from 1,862,000 to 1,855,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,866,000, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,750 from 1,865,000 to 1,863,250.
DOGE Impact on Claims
- Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,634 in the week ending February 22, an increase of 1,020 from the prior week.
- There were 7,412 continued weeks claimed filed by former Federal civilian employees the week ending February 15, a decrease of 200 from the previous week.
Expect these numbers to get much worse.
How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact Unemployment and Jobs?
On February 20, I addressed the question How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact Unemployment and Jobs?
Congrats!
“So, congrats, I suppose, to the 77,000 people who get an eight-month vacation,” Leavitt told NewsNation.
Those who accepted the offer are still getting paid so there should be no unemployment claims related to the 77,000 layoffs for 8 months.
Since they are still technically working, if they take another job, the BLS will see this as a new job. However, these persons will likely take a job from someone else who would have gotten one.
DOGE Layoffs
About 77,000 of the above 110,210 will be paid for 8 months. They will not show up in reports for a long time. The others soon will.
The BLS job survey reference week is usually is the 7-day calendar week (Sunday–Saturday) that includes the 12th of the month, with occasional exceptions.
Any layoffs in February on or after the 16th will not be in the payroll report. And the 77,000 who accepted offers will not show up as unemployed for 8 months.
But those ~33,000 layoffs will soon hit claims and the nonfarm payroll reports and claims depending on unemployment eligibility.
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Finally, the surge in immigration has ground to a halt. I expect a halt in the rise of State and Local employment that handles migrations.
Factor in tariffs and you get this: A Global Trade War Has Started – Global Recession Will Follow