HELSINKI — New Long March rockets and commercially-developed launch vehicles are expected to have their first flights in 2025, boosting China’s overall launch capabilities.
The various launchers will be reusable, adapted for reusability or be expendable but be designed for regular, cost-effective flights. The launchers will compete for contracts to launch satellites for China’s megaconstellation projects—Thousand Sails and Guowang—space station cargo missions and commercial and other contracts, helping to boost the country’s overall access to space and launch rate in the coming years.
Long March 8AOne of the first to fly will be the Long March 8A, a variant of the existing Long March 8, but with a larger, more powerful second stage, boosting payload capacity to a 700-kilometer sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) from 5,000 kilograms to 7,000 kg. The change will also allow the rocket to use a more voluminous 5.2-meter-diameter payload fairing.
The rocket, developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) under the country’s state-owned main space contractor CASC, could fly as soon as Jan. 19, according to recently-released marine navigation warnings. CASC has setup new facilities to boost production of the YF-100 engines which power the first stage of the Long March 8 and other kerosene Long March rockets.
Long March 12AAnother major CASC subsidiary, the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST), is currently preparing for a vertical takeoff, vertical landing (VTVL) test for its Long March 12A rocket. The standard, expendable Long March 12 had a successful first flight in November, demonstrating the kerosene-liquid oxygen YF-100K engines that will power China’s crew lunar rocket in the future. However, the 12A will be reusable, possibly using commercially-developed methane-liquid oxygen engines.
The test appears to be planned for between Jan. 14-16 near Haiyang, Shandong province, where China’s sea launches are facilitated. It will aim for an altitude of around 75 kilometers, simulating a first stage flight.
Zhuque-3One of the first Chinese commercial launch firms Landspace is preparing for the first orbital launch of its Zhuque-3 (Vermilion Bird-3) in 2025, following VTVL tests in 2024.
The stainless steel, two-stage Zhuque-3 will be 4.5 meters in diameter and have a total length of 76.6 meters. The mass at liftoff will be about 660 tons and be powered by nine Tianque-12B engines. Payload capacity to LEO will be 21,000 kilograms when expendable, while it will be able to carry up to 18,300 kg when the first stage is recovered downrange. Alternatively, it can carry 12,500 kg when returning to the launch site.
The company announced Jan.1 via its Sina Weibo social media account that the nine Tianque-12 engines for the first stage have been produced. The new launcher could launch the Haolong reusable cargo spacecraft in 2026 as part of a low-cost cargo scheme promoted by China’s human spaceflight agency.
Tianlong-3Commercial launch company Space Pioneer was aiming to launch Tianlong-3 in 2024. It set up a static fire test in June but, incredibly, the stage came free of its clamps and climbed into the air. The rocket stage fell to Earth creating a fireball on impact. The event was captured by onlookers in a nearby populated area, but fortunately no-one was harmed, with the explosion hitting a mountainside. The company itself survived the near disaster and is planning to launch the Tianlong-3 in 2025.
Tianlong-3 has a diameter of 3.8 meters and a takeoff mass of 590 tons. It is to be capable of lifting 17,000 kg of payload to LEO, or 14,000 kg to 500-km SSO and is benchmarked against the SpaceX Falcon 9.
Pallas-1Commercial outfit Galactic Energy is planning the first launch of its Pallas-1, a kerosene-liquid oxygen rocket which will eventually be adapted for first stage reusability. It will have a payload capacity of 8,000 kg to a 200-kilometer-altitude low Earth orbit (LEO), according to the company’s website. The company says a three-core-stage variant will be capable of carrying up to 30,000 kg to LEO.
Galactic Energy stated Dec. 31 that the final assembly of the first Pallas-1 rocket is underway. It is expected to launch from new facilities at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Area at Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.
Ceres-2Galactic Energy also plans to debut the Ceres-2 rocket in the first half of 2025. That launcher will be an upgraded variant of the Ceres-1 solid rocket. While the Ceres-1 can carry 400 kg to LEO or 300 kg to a 500-km SSO, the Ceres-2 will have a payload capacity of 1,600 kg to 500-km LEO, and 1,300 kg to 500-km SSO, according to Galactic Energy.
Nebula-1Commercial company Deep Blue Aerospace is planning to launch its Nebula-1 rocket this year, aiming to recover and reuse the rocket. The Nebula-1 is a two-stage, 3.35-meter-diameter launcher. The kerosene-liquid oxygen-fueled rocket will use nine variable thrust, 3D-printed Thunder-R1 engines on its first stage, and a single engine on the second. It will be capable of carrying 2,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit (LEO). An improved version will be able to lift 8,000 kilograms to LEO, according to the company.
Kinetica-2 CAS Space, a spinoff for the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is already flying with the solid-propellant Kinetica-1 (Lijian-1), but plans its first kerosene-liquid oxygen rocket launch in the second half of 2025.
The Kinetica-2 will be 53 meters tall and 3.35 m wide, capable of carrying 12,000 kg to LEO or 7,800 kg to SSO. The rocket will eventually be made reusable, according to CAS Space.
Kinetica-2 has been selected to launch the Qingzhou cargo spacecraft from the Innovation Academy for Microsatellites of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAMCAS) as part of the low-cost space station cargo service.
Hyperbola-3Beijing Interstellar Glory Space Technology Ltd., or iSpace, made history in 2019 as the first privately-funded Chinese company to reach orbit with the solid-fueled Hyperbola-1, but has struggled with the rocket ever since, suffering its fourth failure overall in 2024. Undeterred, the company plans to launch its own kerolox rocket in 2025, with Hyperbola-3.
The company is skipping the lighter Hyperbola-2 to reach the lighter payload capacities aimed for by competitors with 69-meter-long Hyperbola-3, which will aim to carry 8,500 kg to LEO when recovered. The company plans to make the rocket reusable in the future, having performed a VTVL test in November 2023.
Other possibilities for debut launches include the Gravity-2 rocket from Orienspace.
A number of these companies and rockets will be competing with each other for limited domestic contracts. The result, however, will likely be that China gains new, low-cost and reusable launchers that will boost China’s access to space, allow an increase in launch rate needed for megaconstellations and other projects, and potentially attract international payloads, though geopolitical challenges remain.
LauncherDeveloperTypePayload CapacityPlanned First FlightKey FeaturesLong March 8ACALTState-led7,000 kg to 700-km SSOJan. 19, 2025 (estimated)More powerful second stage; 5.2-meter-diameter payload fairingLong March 12ASASTState-led, reusableTBDJan. 14–16, 2025 (VTVL test)Reusable; first VTVL test planned.Zhuque-3LandspaceCommercial21,000 kg to LEO (expendable); 18,300 kg (downrange recovery)2025Stainless steel design; potential Haolong reusable cargo launch in 2026.Tianlong-3Space PioneerCommercial17,000 kg to LEO; 14,000 kg to 500-km SSO2025Test mishap in 2024.Pallas-1Galactic EnergyCommercial8,000 kg to LEO; 30,000 kg (three-core variant, future)2025Kerosene-liquid oxygen rocket; first stage reusability planned.Ceres-2Galactic EnergyCommercial (solid rocket)1,600 kg to LEO; 1,300 kg to 500-km SSOFirst half of 2025Upgraded version of Ceres-1 solid rocket.Kinetica-2CAS SpaceCommercial (CAS spinoff)12,000 kg to LEO; 7,800 kg to 500-km SSOSecond half of 2025Kerolox; reusable; selected for Qingzhou cargo spacecraft launch.Hyperbola-3iSpaceCommercial8,500 kg to LEO (recovered version)202569-meter-long kerolox rocket; eventual reusability.