Boom or bust? Making sense of conflicting signals in the space economy

TAMPA, Fla. — Is the space industry expanding or struggling? The past few weeks alone have seen budget scrutiny threaten major U.S. government programs, including the Space Launch System, while even private space giant Blue Origin is trimming staff. At the same time, venture funding remains active, satellite demand is rising and analysts still forecast years of steady growth.While these conflicting signals paint a confusing picture of the space economy’s health, they point to a deeper story about an industry at a pivotal moment.“Reality is nuanced,” said Lucas Pleney, a senior consultant at space research firm Novaspace, “with several overlapping factors contributing to these seemingly conflicting signals.”At its core, the space industry is caught between short-term caution and long-term optimism. Government budget pressures and shifting priorities are fueling uncertainty, while venture investment is still flowing but more selectively, making it harder for some startups to secure funding as larger firms seek ways to cut costs amid shifting market conditions.Getting into shape“There’s no denying the influence of government decisions on the sector,” Pleney continued.“Much of the funding still comes from public sources, and when the government tightens its belt, the private sector tends to follow — sometimes even anticipating cuts to stay ahead. We’re seeing that play out right now.”NASA’s flagship deep-space rocket, SLS, for instance, has been under heavy scrutiny for a while, with expected launch costs somewhere in the region of $2 billion per flight — not exactly feasible for frequent lunar missions.The development of Mobile Launcher-2, a towering platform designed to prepare SLS for deep-space missions, was also initially budgeted at $383 million but is now projected to reach $2.5 billion.“These inefficiencies have made SLS a target for criticism,” Pleney said, particularly in the context of the Trump administration’s current focus on efficient spending.“These government decisions ripple through the industry,” he added. “The most direct impacts are seen in layoffs within federal agencies.”But there are also knock-on effects. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is letting go of staff tied to the Mars Sample Return mission, a major program for the Pasadena, California-based center, which faced cuts.On the private side, Pleney said Blue Origin’s downsizing is likely a preemptive move to stay lean in uncertain times.Restructuring, not retreatingDownsizing does not always signal trouble, Pleney noted, and for many companies, it’s just part of the natural business cycle.“Aerospace firms often ramp up hiring during development phases and then reduce headcount once products become operational to cut operational costs,” he added.“It’s a normal adjustment rather than a sign of systemic issues. I think that in Blue Origin’s case, they will shift their priorities and hire more in other business lines.”It’s also important to note that the space economy’s growth is not evenly spread.According to Novaspace analysis, the downstream segment — which includes companies that use space-based assets to provide communications, imagery and other services — continues to show steady growth, with revenues expected to rise from $157 billion in 2024 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% over the next 10 years.This part of the industry benefits from stable consumer-driven demand.In contrast, the $60 billion upstream sector, which includes manufacturing, launch and infrastructure that enable space activities, is only forecast to grow 1-3% as it remains cyclical and more vulnerable to shifts in political priorities.“The upstream side is where we’re seeing more volatility,” Pleney said, “with projects heavily influenced by changing government agendas.”Overall, Novaspace projects the global space economy to rise 7% this year to $620 billion.Inflection pointThe space sector is widely viewed as undergoing a major shift across many fronts. While budget cuts, project delays and workforce reductions pose immediate challenges, analysts also see strong long-term growth prospects, particularly in commercially driven downstream markets.“The enthusiasm around new infrastructure development, satellite connectivity is still well-founded,” Pleney said, “but challenged by incomers, especially vertically integrated such as SpaceX, but soon also [Amazon’s low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband constellation] Kuiper.”Demand for broadband service overall is strong, said Carissa Christensen, CEO of space analytics firm BryceTech, “and LEO constellations fill gaps in terrestrial coverage, potentially with a path to significantly scale beyond those gaps by competing with terrestrial providers.”For Christensen, the big question in predicting the future of the space economy is whether systems like Kuiper or SpaceX’s operational Starlink network in LEO can deliver service quality and pricing competitive enough to attract users away from mainstream providers.“While we’ve seen growth in LEO broadband and managed services, [legacy geostationary orbit (GEO)] markets have not fared as well,” she said. “Overall, GEO demand has dropped because television demand has dropped, and that downward revenue pressure will continue.”Meanwhile, Christensen said national security space budgets are growing globally, creating new customers for companies serving military and intelligence missions — though there’s still tension around meeting mission needs with government-owned, contractor-built systems, versus acquiring services from commercial providers.Defense uncertaintyStill, defense budgets are not immune to cost-cutting. The Trump administration recently directed the Pentagon to reduce its budget by 8% annually over the next five years.How much this affects space remains to be seen as key administration priority programs will be shielded from cuts, according to a Feb. 19 statement from Robert Salesses, who is performing the duties of Deputy Secretary of Defense.“In this realignment, space may be one of those priority areas whose funding could go up even if spent in new ways and more commercially driven contracts,” an investment banker told SpaceNews on condition of anonymity.“It also seems there are some outdated weapons programs the military would cut were it not for Congress and the jobs. Also a general belief among many that all of government could get by with less people if the remaining people had the technologies to work more efficiently. We shall see. Interesting and confusing times.”Challenging but promising road aheadAlthough early-stage space firms have been successfully raising capital, BryceTech’s Christensen also highlighted how some venture-funded firms — particularly those with high valuations — are struggling to find commercial customers and raise additional capital in today’s financial climate.“Remote sensing firms particularly fall in this category,” she said. “Government programs have helped support such firms, and government cuts could hit hard.”Emerging markets such as In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (ISAM) are also highly dependent on government programs, with agencies often serving as both customer and development partner. If funding shifts away from these initiatives, growth could stall.Ultimately, the space sector remains a study in contrasts: short-term corrections and belt-tightening on one side, but sustained optimism for future expansion on the other.Analysts such as Novaspace’s Pleney expect the upstream segment to remain vulnerable to shifts in government spending, while downstream markets are better positioned for stable, long-term growth.That said, this is a story that’s still unfolding.