The Commerce Department revised March durable goods orders from +2.6 percent to +0.8 percent. Now it reports a 0.7 percent gain vs an expectation of -0.5 percent.
Advance Durable Goods
- New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.
- This followed a 0.8 percent March increase.
- Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent.
- Excluding defense, new orders were virtually unchanged.
- Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion.
Shipments
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion.
- This followed a 0.1 percent March increase.
- Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
What Happened?
The Commerce Department made a massive revision to transportation orders.
There have been a lot of revisions lately, most of them very negative.
New Orders and Shipments in Millions of Dollars
I created some new charts today to show how misleading the reported data is.
New Orders and Shipments in Millions of Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Dollars
Adjusted for inflation, durable goods new order and shipments are at best going nowhere. Transportation orders are keeping everything afloat.
Durable Goods Real New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago
Real Orders and Shipments Year-Over-Year Key Points
- Year-Over-Year Real New orders are down four consecutive months
- Year-Over-Year Real Shipments are down 14 out of the last 16 months
Shipments are important because that’s what feeds GDP. And it hard for shipments to do well if new orders are plunging.
New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions
New Home Sales plunged. And the Census Department completely revised away last month’s fictional 8.8 percent rise.
For discussion, please see New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions
Second Big Revision
Here’s my headline from last month: New Home Sales Rise 8.8 Percent After 3.8 Percent Negative Revision
Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023
On April 24, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well.
For discussion, please see Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too
Consistently large negative revisions are the hallmark of recessions.