CA-13 is the last uncalled race. Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) trails Democratic challenger Adam Gray by about 190 votes.
If Adam Gray wins as now expected, the total will be 220-215. That would mean Republicans could lose no more than one vote to pass legislation.
But it’s even worse because Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned his seat. That would make it 219-215.
Also, Trump tapped Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-NY for ambassador to United Nations, and Mike Waltz, R-Fl for national security adviser, respectively.
The Florida seats will have a special election on April 1, but the date for New York special election is not set and the Democrat Governor will delay that as long as possible.
What About a Tie Vote in the House?
CBS News explains Tie Vote.
What a tie vote means in the House
According to House rules, in the case of a tie vote, a question before the chamber “shall be lost.” In the lower chamber, where Republicans hold just a slim majority and often see a handful of defections among their conference, there’s no tie-breaker. Unlike in the Senate, where a tie-breaking vote may be cast, no one is brought in to resolve the issue.
Breaking a tie vote in the Senate
In the upper chamber, which sees tie votes with more regularity, the Vice President is called upon to cast tie-breaking votes. In recent years, with a narrow Democratic majority in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris has on more than 30 occasions cast a tie-breaking vote, breaking the record set almost 200 years ago.
With the above in mind, assuming Stefanik is quickly confirmed, the House would be 217-215 with Republicans having zero votes to spare in a flip, but one vote to spare due to an absence or abstention.
A single flip would make it 216-216. Even at 219-215 after the special elections, Republicans can afford at most one flip making a vote 218-216. A second flip would result in a 217-217 tie.
Freedom Caucus Coming Up to Bat
There are about 39 Freedom Caucus members but there is no official list.
This group of freedom fighters supposedly wants a balance budget. They removed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the budget.
Republicans then replaced McCarthy with Mike Johnson who agreed to much worse deals than McCarthy aimed for.
Mike Johnson Is the New (But Not Improved) Kevin McCarthy
On January 18, I commented Mike Johnson Is the New (But Not Improved) Kevin McCarthy
The House just passed Mike Johnson’s bipartisan continuing resolution punt. Dear Republicans, please wave the white flag and surrender before doing more damage, because more damage is on the table just today.
Kevin McCarthy proposed $1.47 trillion and that included something the border. We are at least $1.8 trillion now, and I suspect closer to $2.0 trillion.
Nor does it include the full ramifications of child tax credits that now appear to cost an average of $150 billion a year. The estimate yesterday was $78 billion a year for the entire deal.
Dear Republicans, please wave the white flag and surrender!
Republican Humiliation
On March 21, I noted Republican Humiliation Enshrined in Huge 1,000-Page $1.2 Trillion Bill
Bear in mind that $1.526 trillion McCarthy proposed was for the whole shebang, 12 separate items.
The $1.2 Trillion that is on the table is for six components, not the entire budget.
At a minimum, we are at $2.086 trillion. And that is not counting Biden’s request for another $100 billion or so for Ukraine and Israel.
It was even worse than I expected. The final package funds “Teens Like Us LGBTQIA2s+” and “Gender Affirming Clothing Program” for ages 13-18. Mercy!
OK Freedom Caucus, Now What?
Here’s the deal. If there are many as two defections, Republicans will not be able to pass much of anything if Trump tries to deliver his campaign promises like no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no tax on overtime.
How many balanced budget hypocrites do you expect to see when Trump proposes big budget deficit increases?
Given there are about 39 Freedom Caucus Republicans, I expect to see about 39 flaming hypocrites.
The way to lose more more seats in the midterms is to primary everyone who disagrees with Trump on anything.
Poor candidate selection is why Republicans lost two Senate seats in Georgia, one seat in Pennsylvania, and in 2024 another seat in Arizona.