Trump pressured Zelensky back to the table by withholding aid, restored today. Now what?
Now It’s Russia’s Turn
The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. to Restore Military Support to Ukraine After It Agrees to Cease-Fire
The Trump administration said it would immediately lift a pause on intelligence sharing and military support to Ukraine, as Kyiv agreed to implement a 30-day cease-fire in top level talks with U.S. officials.
The plan, which is contingent on Russian acceptance, was outlined in a statement issued by Ukraine and the U.S.
“Today we made an offer which the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a cease-fire and into immediate negotiations to end this conflict in a way that’s enduring and sustainable and accounts for their interests, their security, their ability to prosper as a nation,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“We will take this offer now to the Russians and we hope that they’ll say ‘yes,’ that they’ll say ‘yes’ to peace. The ball is now in their court,” he added.
Far from signaling flexibility, Russia has doubled down on its key demands. Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected a British and French proposal to deploy peacekeeping troops to ensure that a future peace agreement isn’t violated by Russia—a European proposal that Trump has welcomed.
Russia has also continued its military offensive in Kursk aimed at depriving Kyiv of a potential bargaining chip in any negotiations by pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Russian province.
EU Cut Out
This meeting was in Saudi Arabia. The EU played no role, and won’t in these negotiations.
Involving Saudi Arabia rather than the EU was more symbolic than influential. Saudi won’t play a role in this.
Flashback, February 16, 2025: Why is Trump Leading the Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Without the EU?
Because 1) no one else has a plan, 2) Trump’s plan is likely to work, 3) the EU would screw it up.
The EU is all about virtue signaling and little more. The EU would be an impediment to a deal, demanding the US provide security for Ukraine.
Why would Trump want to put up with that?
Trump Goads Germany Into a Budget-Breaking Increase in Defense Spending
On March 5, I commented Trump Goads Germany Into a Budget-Breaking Increase in Defense Spending
Chalk up a likely victory for Trump on German defense spending.
However, this is just a proposal. It takes two-thirds of the German parliament to agree. Moreover, the incoming government is highly unlikely to agree.
AfD and the far left have a blocking minority.
But there is a small window of opportunity to recall the outgoing parliament to get this done.
What About France?
Unlike Germany, France and Italy are under EU debt and deficit proceedings.
That makes it harder for France and Italy to boost defense spending.
To understand how France differs from Germany, please consider The Political Crisis in France Is About to Get Much Worse
The entire eurozone is in shambles, and Trump’s demands [on 5 percent defense spending and trade policy] will accelerate the crisis. One seriously must wonder if that is his real goal.
Expect a Deal
On March 9, I commented Expect a Revival of the Trump’s Peace Deal Between Russia and Ukraine
There’s no official word but I remain optimistic for a deal.
Moments ago, President Trump says Ukrainian President Zelensky invited back to White House.
The key takeaway is Trump is making progress on a peace deal, but the EU isn’t and won’t.