Expect Trump and Zelensky to sign a deal over minerals soon. Then what?
An Offer You Can’t Refuse
The Wall Street Journal editorial board comments on a Mineral Deal Ukraine Can’t Refuse
Volodymyr Zelensky visits the White House on Friday to nail down a mineral rights deal between the U.S. and Ukraine.
The country has Europe’s largest supply of uranium, second-largest supply of natural gas, and substantial reserves of lithium and other rare-earth minerals. These resources are valued at about $1 trillion, and about a third are in Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine.
Mr. Trump wants a share of those resources as repayment for the aid the U.S. has provided Kyiv during the war. This is the transactional way Mr. Trump views the world and it smacks of reparations, but Mr. Zelensky had little choice other than to oblige if he wants to secure a credible “peace” with Russia. Mr. Zelensky was at least able to negotiate better terms than Mr. Trump first demanded.
Under the final deal, Ukraine will pay half of all revenue from developing these resources to an investment fund jointly owned with the U.S. The agreement says contributions will be invested “to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine.” The details will be worked out between the economic ministries, and Ukraine’s Parliament will have to ratify it.
The war has caused enormous destruction in Ukraine, which will need hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild. Foreign taxpayers can’t be expected to cover this cost, and Ukraine will need private investment. Other investors might be more inclined to help Ukraine rebuild if the U.S. is involved.
The deal won’t apply to resources that have already been developed and contribute to Ukraine’s budget. That’s important because Ukraine uses domestic revenue to fund its military, including soldier pay and weapons. Russia wants a peace deal that limits Ukraine’s military.
The mineral deal includes no U.S. security guarantees but says the U.S. “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.” It’s hard to know what that unspecific promise means, but in Mr. Trump’s mind it probably means Europeans help first.
By the way, Mr. Trump on Thursday walked back his claim last week that Mr. Zelensky is a “dictator.” Press question: “Do you still think Zelensky is a dictator?”
Mr. Trump: “Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that. Next question.”
Flashback November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
Ukraine Already Lost the War But the EU Hasn’t Figured That Out
February 24, 2025 I posted Ukraine Already Lost the War But the EU Hasn’t Figured That Out
A negotiated settlement, land for peace is what I said in 2022. Terms now include mineral rights.
The Goal and a Mission
Like it or not, we now have a goal and a mission. They are one and the same, end the war. The war will end as I repeatedly stated since 2022, a negotiated settlement.
You can agree or disagree with Trump’s approach or the appeasement of Putin. But you cannot change the facts.
The longer Zelensky holds out the more territory Ukraine will lose.
The EU said it is willing to commit troops, I said no. My no was in reference to before there was a deal.
Trump will force the EU to commit troops for any peace deal Ukraine signs.
A Third of the Way There
What the EU wants doesn’t matter. Russia will be the hard half, or two-thirds as I see it.
Trump can easily threaten Putin with weapons for Ukraine if Putin won’t go along.
In return, Trump will agree with Russia’s key red lines: No NATO or EU membership for Ukraine, land for peace, and the end of sanctions.
Russia desperately needs the end of sanctions. And Trump would also be happy to pay Russia to develop the minerals the US wants.
The hard part of the negotiation will be the number of peacekeeping troops. Whatever number Trump negotiates, the EU will have to provide most of them. The EU won’t have much say in this.
Howls Over Sanctions
Europe will howl over the end of sanctions, and so will the WSJ editorial board.
So what?
Trump wants the price of oil to come down and he wants to develop the land Ukraine cedes to Russia. Those will require an end of sanctions.
A Binding UN Resolution Does Not Blame Russia for War in Ukraine
I suspect we are closer to the a peace deal and the end of sanctions than most think.
On February 24, I commented A Binding UN Resolution Does Not Blame Russia for War in Ukraine
The US [China and Russia] torpedoed a UN resolution blaming Russia. A US counterproposal passed when France and the UK abstained.
Putin has to be tired of this war now too. And he needs more money from oil and minerals to rebuild.
Mish 2022 and Again in 2023: “It [a negotiated settlement] will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.“
Q: When?
A: Now